Competitive advantage can be obtained either by differentiation or by low cost. Enterprise prediction markets certainly don’t foster the innovation process, and they are surely not the cheapest forecasting tool. EPMs require special software, the hiring of consultant(s), the participation of all, and a budget for the prizes. EPMs are costly, and they take time [...]
Paul Hewitt:
[...] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the outcome! Looking further into the results, while most of the predictions have a smaller error than [...]
-
Previously: The truth about prediction markets
Remember what the great Chris Masse said?
Nate Silver applies the approach to Bobby Jindal.
Note that accuracy is out of the picture (since 2012 is far away) —as I said, the velocity argument is impermeable to inaccuracy and backfires.
Sean Park, take this as my answer.
To sum up things…
And in other words:
The relative accuracy of the prediction markets = epsilon and (quite) controversial.
The relative efficiency of the prediction markets versus the mass media (not the vertical media) = big (in complicated situations), undeniable, and impermeable to inaccuracy.
Voila.
Part of the job of the Open Institute Of Prediction Markets will be to [...]
… the velocity argument will lead to new applications.
One bit of criticism about my pamphlet (The Truth About Prediction Markets) goes like this: Velocity without accuracy is dumb.
That is not true.
Let’s imagine, for the sake of the exercise, that Barack Obama does not pick up Kathleen Sebelius to head HHS. The velocity argument remains valid: Fed by the vertical media (in this case, [...]
A president of the United States Of America was assassinated in Dallas, on Friday, November 22, 1963. That was the 9/11 of that era.
Following the arrest (and assassination) of Lee Harvey Oswald, a number of people advocated his innocence —and, instead, claimed that the death of JFK was the result of a CIA–FBI–Military conspiracy. A [...]
I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical sides.
In the conclusion of their introduction, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock wrote that they want [...]
It is only today (February 19) that the New York Times emerges out of hibernation and headlines:
- Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obama’s top choice for secretary of health and human services.
Now, look at the red line in the HubDub chart below: the [...]
Recent Comments