Tag Archives: The Truth About Prediction Markets

Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets?

Posted on September 8, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Competitive advantage can be obtained either by differentiation or by low cost. Enterprise prediction markets certainly don’t foster the innovation process, and they are surely not the cheapest forecasting tool. EPMs require special software, the hiring of consultant(s), the participation … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Cases, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Best Buy, betting markets, businesses, CEOs, Circuit City, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, competitive advantage, corporate prediction markets, cost cutting, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, innovation, internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets, technology intelligence, The Truth About Prediction Markets | 6 Comments

The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets

Posted on April 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: [...] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Chris F. Masse, Chris F. Masse is a Fraud., Chris Masse, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), HP, internal prediction markets, Midas Oracle, Paul Hewitt, predicting, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Predictions, private prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, truth, velocity, wisdom of crowds | 19 Comments

Midas Oracle tells the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

Posted on March 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: The truth about prediction markets

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged Midas Oracle, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets | Leave a comment

“It is their velocity that we should put to work.”

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Remember what the great Chris Masse said? Nate Silver applies the approach to Bobby Jindal. Note that accuracy is out of the picture (since 2012 is far away) —as I said, the velocity argument is impermeable to inaccuracy and backfires. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, Nate Silver, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

To sum up things… And in other words: The relative accuracy of the prediction markets = epsilon and (quite) controversial. The relative efficiency of the prediction markets versus the mass media (not the vertical media) = big (in complicated situations), … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, inaccuracy, mass media, Open Insitute Of Prediction Markets, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity, vertical media | Leave a comment

Plus…

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

… the velocity argument will lead to new applications.

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Velocity + Inaccuracy

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

One bit of criticism about my pamphlet (The Truth About Prediction Markets) goes like this: Velocity without accuracy is dumb. That is not true. Let’s imagine, for the sake of the exercise, that Barack Obama does not pick up Kathleen … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | 9 Comments

JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets

Posted on February 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

A president of the United States Of America was assassinated in Dallas, on Friday, November 22, 1963. That was the 9/11 of that era. Following the arrest (and assassination) of Lee Harvey Oswald, a number of people advocated his innocence … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), History | Tagged enterprise prediction markets, JFK, JFK assassination, John F. Kennedy, prediction markets, public prediction markets, The Passing Of Time, The Truth About Prediction Markets | 6 Comments

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 US presidential election, accuracy, AEI-Brookings, Bob Hahn, Collective Decision Making, decision making, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Information Markets, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, public prediction markets, Robert Hahn, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

It is only today (February 19) that the New York Times emerges out of hibernation and headlines: – Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obamaâ€™s top choice for secretary … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Project | Tagged Barack Obama, Health and Human Services, HHS, HubDub, InTrade, Kathleen Sebelius, Open Institute Of Prediction Markets, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, United States Department of Health and Human Services | 2 Comments

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