Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: real-money prediction markets

No real-money prediction markets in the US till 2010 or 2011 —at best.

Start-Ups Hedging Their Bets On Online-Gambling Legislation.
Wall Street Journal:
Gerard Cunningham, president of BetFair US, the world’s largest legal online gaming company, isn’t confident that the bills will get their proper hearing in Congress soon.
“The challenges those bills face is the amount of things going on in Washington,” Cunningham said. “They have other concerns now… maybe [...]

Will the USA legalize real-money gambling and betting over the Internet? — CNBC video

Odds Favoring Online Gambling? – CNBC
- Andrew Parmentire, Height Analytics
- David Katz, Oppenheimer gaming analyst
Download this post to watch the CNBC video –if your feed reader doesn’t show it to you:

Via Alexander Ainslie et al.
Addendum: Global Gaming Expo + Google News

Taxing real-money prediction markets to solve the US public deficits?

Three U.S. states are pushing plans for video poker and slot machines as their legislators hope gambling income will compensate for declines in taxes.

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

If you think of it, the business model of BetFair and InTrade should be to deliver free prediction market data to the world, while leveraging trading fees on the bettors. Agree?

Google, Yahoo, Microsoft Want to Legalize For-Money Prediction Markets.

Google, Yahoo, Microsoft Want to Legalize For-Money Prediction Markets.

American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of Trade

American Civics Exchange is enabling what InTrade (circa 2006, when they applied for the eBOT status) couldn’t… —getting the CFTC stamp of approval, and running a real-money prediction exchange from within the US territory (as opposed to offshore). The ACE does not have any direct domestic competitor, right now, but HedgeStreet could enter the political [...]

At the contrary, mister Kirtland.

Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.
Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched —that has not [...]

The InTrade traders are wondering what the future of InTrade is —now that TradeSports has bellied up in style.

Here are the screen shots of their posts —before they get removed.
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Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade’s viability
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After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.

My post about the sudden closure of TradeSports was the #2 most downloaded webpages, yesterday —even though that post was published late yesterday. And this morning, I am receiving tons of e-mails from the InTrade and TradeSports traders (they are often the same people).
My reasoning:

InTrade is the twin site of TradeSports.
The closure of TradeSports was [...]

InTrade finally expire the “Yahoo! CEO to step down” prediction market. — Many hours after the news of his upcoming departure hit the wires.

Yahoo! press release
Boom Town
New York Times
Wall Street Journal
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