Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: real estate

Jim Rogers on commodities, the commodity bubble, gold, the gold bubble, crude oil, the crude oil bubble, China, the China bubble — etc.

Via Joe Weisenthal:

Eminent Domain: How one small town was taken over so Pfizer could build a new campus

John Stossel:

Don’t worry too much about the Dubai World default.

The Chinese real estate bubble

eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?

The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “spring bounce.” Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate [...]

Washington Mutual is seized by the US government.

- New York Times
- Another one bites the dust:

(Sorry for those who have a narrow screen and don’t see the right part of this big chart.)
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According to InTrade, here are the banks that could fail next:
- Bank United Financial
- Downey Financial
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External Links About The Big Bailout:
- Reason magazine have collected opinions from the leading free-market [...]

Money-on-the-line forecasts tend to do better than cheap-talk forecasts, even if the cheap-talk is from an independent analyst.

Said Tim Harford, talking about real estate derivatives. Felix Salmon disagrees.

US DOJ searches financial records for traces of internet gambling and betting.

INTERNET BETTING AND GAMBLING: CRISIS #23,765

Via Niall O’Connor of Betting Market, The Register’s Burke Hansen (a San Francisco attorney):
House of Cards. The American Department of Justice (DOJ) threw a spotlight on the murky underworld of internet gambling payment processing this afternoon with the indictment in Utah of seven individuals and four companies – including BetUs.com [...]

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall)
Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book)

Michael Abramowicz:
If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to them in their own analyses.
Will trading play-money and/or real-money event derivative contracts become commonplace? It’s likely, at the contrary, [...]

Real Estate Derivatives

Via the Housing Derivatives blog, the MIT Center for Real Estate (scroll down):
Indexes Can Make Money: Real Estate Derivatives
Real estate derivatives based on indexes like the TBI can offer investors more liquidity, lower transaction costs, and more accurate pricing than current investment options, according to Geltner. “It’s a way of investing in real estate very [...]

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