Tag Archives: probabilities
BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.
This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.
Makes no sense at all.
The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.
DISAMBIGUATION: The “illiquid” adjective [...]
Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions
He cherry-picks positive outcomes in hindsight, and he measures probabilistic predictions categorically and in isolation.
Don’t be fooled by any “research scientist”.
Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.
Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities.
Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
Joe should be aware of InTrade’s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type “North Korea missile InTrade” in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces [...]
Expressing betting prices as percentages
Smarkets:
Can I choose my style of odds?
We show percentage odds by default, but you can select the odds display of your choice from the top of every page. We offer American, fractional, decimal and percentage odds. Because we allow fans to set their own odds you may see some strange looking fractional or American odds, [...]
Smarkets better than BetFair and InTrade
Smarkets now allows you to set your own odds in the format of your choice — percentages, fractions, decimals, or American odds.
External Link: Smarkets
How Business Insider got it wrong with the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds
PaddyPower is a bookmaker, not a prediction exchange. Hence, the Tiger Woods divorce cost odds are computed by an analyst, not by the market.
1. It is not the “punters” who have fabricated the odds, but a PaddyPower employee.
2. It is not a set of “market odds”, but a set of bookmaker odds.
3. The bookmaker analyst [...]
Book Of Odds
http://bookofodds.com/
Via David Pennock and Andrew Gelman
InTrade publishes real-time trade alerts on Twitter under the user name IntradeTrades.
http://twitter.com/IntradeTrades
http://twitter.com/Intrade
BetFair are impermeable to the prediction market approach.
BetFair seem to be stuck with the betting approach, as far as I can see. The prediction market approach would require that you present to the public (as opposed to the small population of bettors) the probabilities expressed in percentage. (Odds can be added, of course.) Instead, BetFair insist on decimal odds only (with, sometimes, [...]
A 16-year-old list of unthinkable futures —i.e., probabilities we tend to dismiss without thinking
Unthinkable Futures – by Kevin Kelly and Brian Eno – 1993
Via Ari Garber
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