Tag Archives: probabilities

Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]

Posted on November 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi, The Return. – From Order Books to Belief Distributions.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman finds Rajiv Sethi’s remarks interesting: Markets are impressive mechanisms for information aggregation but they’re not magic. The information has to come from somewhere, and markets are inherently always living in the phase transition between stability and instability. (It … Continue reading →

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Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi: I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate did either (especially since he added the caveat that he disagreed with some of the imputed beliefs). My point was just that there a lot more interesting information in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini: If you have varying account sizes, you know right away the price isn’t an evenly weighted average of beliefs, but I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate Silver wrote given his purposes. He just said they … Continue reading →

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On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

BOOKMAKER ODDS: Next country to topple leader. – [FORECASTS]

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paddy Power: 15/8 Yemen 9/4 Jordan 7/2 Algeria 7/2 Morocco 8/1 Bahrain 12/1 Iran 16/1 Libya 16/1 Sudan 16/1 Iraq 20/1 Saudi Arabia 20/1 Syria

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A somewhat simplistic, but nonetheless interesting, article in which the predictive quality of the BetFair market is slagged off, because it upsets their traditional form book study methods (by implication, of course, if they are right, then everybody could/should/would just follow the late money and win).

Posted on September 15, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor offers you this link for free.

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Paul Hewitt

In Paul Krugman’s blog entry, Done, at 4:39pm (EDT) on March 21, 2010, he commented: “OK, nothing is sure in this world. Intrade is still giving Obamacare a 2.2% chance of failing, …” He was talking about the InTrade market … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Transaction Costs, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress. Makes no sense at all. … Continue reading →

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