Tag Archives: prediction market analysts
State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets
Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me:
Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’t keep up. In past elections the markets were much better than the polls within a few days [...]
Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?
- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections.
- The bad point is that, at the time he wrote up his column, Virginia governor Tim Kaine was the favorite of the [...]
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.
The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.
[...] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his [...]
Never trust a politician.
Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).
“Friend — I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’s speech + Joe Biden’s speech
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I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. [...]
While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.
BBC News:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’s or John McCain’s head.
Thank God for the BBC.
Thank [...]
Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
Who will be Obama’s choice for VP?
ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don’t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, or wicked lies in the form of trial balloons. The aims of the political campaigns [...]
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