Tag Archives: objective probabilistic predictions

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Posted on October 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future | 1 Comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

Is this a sign that the BetFair prediction exchange and the BetFair blog are not the best sources of information on the 2008 US presidential elections?

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: – the latest InTrade predictions – Emile Servan-Schreiber’s post on market arbitrage

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitage, Barack Obama, BetFair, BetFair blog, event derivatives, John McCain, market arbitrage, objective probabilistic predictions, odds, prediction markets | Leave a comment

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US elections prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, GOP, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | 3 Comments

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Posted on September 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, IEM, Independents, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

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