The best presentations from the worlds best conference on enterprise prediction markets -ever

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Awesome slides in bold.

Brought to you by Koleman Strumpf (circa November 2007):

Henry Berg, Microsoft &lt-slides&gt-
Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics) &lt-slides&gt-

Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market- abstract is free, text is gated) &lt-slides&gt-
Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy) &lt-slides&gt-

Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market) &lt-slides&gt-

Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work) &lt-slides&gt-

Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions &lt-slides&gt-

David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point &lt-slides&gt-

Mat Fogarty, Founder and CEO, Xpree Inc &lt-slides&gt-

Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law &lt-slides&gt-

Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism

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Xpree&#8217-s Mat Fogarty (responding to Jed Christiansen, even though Jed didn&#8217-t talk to him but to Emile Servan-Schreiber :-D &#8212-argh, kids, today, interrupting adults&#8217- conversations :-D ):

We have had success combining voting to rank the ideas, then prediction markets to analyze the potential of the top ranked ideas. The phrasing in the prediction market needs to be quite specific, if we invested in idea A, how long would it take to get to market? how much would we sell in the first year? If the company does not invest in idea A, then the money bet in the market is returned to the user.

With long development cycles this can be challenging as it requires keeping the market active until ship, or for the sales estimate, one year after ship.

Of course, you could use a preference market – but this has issues of information cascades and rewarding of group think.


Here&#8217-s the Xpree stuff which Mat is talking about.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
  • Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

Xpree, the leader in prediction market forecasting technology for corporations

No GravatarI like Mat Fogarty and Xpree, I think they bring new and needed forecasting competency to the field of prediction markets, but I think that this statement is untrue and thus its author looks a bit childish. I can&#8217-t believe that Mat Fogarty would output such a statement. To say that Xpree is &#8220-the leader&#8221- in this industry segment is like saying that The Dallas Morning News is the biggest newspaper on Earth.

REPLACE IT WITH: &#8230-&#8221-Xpree, the most innovative [*] supplier of prediction market forecasting technology for corporations&#8221-&#8230- that would be closer to the truth&#8230- and less subject to controversy&#8230- and ridicule.

[*] See rhe comments.

UPDATE: Mat Fogarty changed it for &#8220-Xpree, the most awesome prediction market forecasting technology for corporations&#8221-.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • How Decision Markets Work (with emphasis on InTrade) – by Robin Hanson
  • MIDAS ORACLE POWER: People googling about BetFair’s new bet-matching logic are automatically directed to our group blog. BetFair’s SEO can return to the locker room.
  • David Pennock, a respected expert in prediction markets and market design, discusses some aspects of BetFair’s new bet-matching logic.
  • Inkling Markets has automated the making of the contractual agreement with its prospects. So, now, if you don’t want to, you can avoid talking to Adam “The Shark” Siegel.
  • Google’s Bo Cowgill @ 2008 DIG Conference