Tag Archives: forecasting

Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]

Did Eric Zitzewitz read Dodd-Frank? Jason Ruspini: Unfortunately, election contracts and ALL event contracts appear to be prohibited by CFTC regulation 40.11, released in July 2011 as part of Dodd-Frank: “(a) Prohibition. A registered entity shall not list for trading … Continue reading

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Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]

Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading

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InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]

For info, here’s the Midas Oracle feed at Twitter. I publish there plenty of prediction market news that don’t appear on this blog.

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Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Philip Tetlock:

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How many predictions is the The Good Judgment Team’s system currently handling? — [NEWS]

20,000.

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Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

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The Great Global Warming Swindle — [VIDEO]

CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Can Influence Climate Change.

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What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading

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Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task — [PAPER]

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task: We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 … Continue reading

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