After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. – [LINK]

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked.

Robin Hanson:

I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, such firms usually don’t doubt my claims that such forecasts are cheap and more accurate. Nevertheless, they usually aren’t interested.

The other take about forecast accuracy.

Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]

You can build a predictive model to find hidden patterns in financial data, or else.

–> Google Prediction APIMachine learning for your business.

Cold Fusion Prediction Markets – [HISTORY]

In April 1989, Robin Hanson created this prediction market:

By 1/1/91 a &lt-1 liter device will have generated over 1 watt of power output more than input from room-T fusion, including amortized power to create/separate components.

I suppose that InTrade will be willing to float E-cat contracts. We’-ll see.

Wall Street analystss view is too short term.

They are incapable of forecasting a revolution.

And that includes Jason Ruspini.

UPDATE:

- Keep in mind that, at inception, Apple also underestimated the iPad numbers. They had to ramp up production, later on.

- See Paul Hewitt’-s comment, below.

Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver

- Andrew Gelman nailed it:

In summary, “-momentum”- can exist, but the places where you’-ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions. The mere information that a race has a 5-point swing is not enough to predict a future shift in that direction. As Nate emphasizes, such a prediction is only appropriate in the context of real-world information, hypotheses of “-factors above and beyond the direction in which the polls have moved in the past.”-

- As an appendix, and on another topic, compare Justin Wolfers’-s naive view on genders with Steve Blank’-s informed viewpoint.