Tag Archives: forecasting
Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.
Robin Hanson’s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf):
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Robin Hanson:
Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too.
But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a sacred quest, to understand everything, and to save the world. I am addicted to “viewquakes”, insights which [...]
CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The readers of Midas Oracle are well aware of the (relative) performance of the prediction markets [...]
More info about CrowdCast’s brand-new collective forecasting mechanism in my next post –suspense, suspense…
Hearthis post
Paul Saffo – Effective Forecasting
Hearthis post
Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine are speaking at Enterprise 2.0 in Boston.
Enterprise 2.0 – Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.A. – 2009-06-22~25
The Promise of Prediction Markets [*] #e2conf33
When will the product really ship? How much will we sell next year? While accurate forecasts are a cornerstone of a well-run enterprise, the methods to arrive at those forecasts haven’t changed in decades. Prediction markets offer the ability to tap the [...]
“Collective Forecasting”… becomes officially our second industry keyword starting today —I decreeted that after a good slurp of Bordeaux wine.
In homage to our good doctor Robin Hanson (I am too good, I know), I let the term “collective forecasting” appear in the description of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets:
This group is for anybody who have a strong interest in prediction markets (and collective forecasting, generally) or works in the prediction market industry. Everybody [...]
Global Foresight
Speaking of networking, here is an interesting LinkedIn group: Global Foresight. Robin Hanson (well known to be a very picky guy) is a member, so it can’t be bad. – Our good friend Mike Linksvayer, too, I just see.
GlobalForesight.org is a nonprofit ASF initiative to find and connect our planet’s foresight students, alums, [...]
Professor Richard Wiseman misunderstands both the (real) wisdom of crowds and the (hypothetical) mechanism of precognition.
Professor Richard Wiseman (from the University of Hertfordshire) does not understand that:
- His psychic experiment on Twitter can’t be qualified as harnessing “the wisdom of crowds”, since there is no information that the participants can ever aggregate (since they are left in the dark totally). If there is no information aggregation, then there is no [...]
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