Tag Archives: forecast

Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]

Posted on July 17, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?

Posted in Individual Intelligence - Anti Consensus, Precognition, Psychology | Tagged forecast, forecasting, forecasts, foxes, hedgehogs, intuition, Precognition, predicting, prediction, Predictions, predictors | Leave a comment

Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]

Posted on May 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

You can build a predictive model to find hidden patterns in financial data, or else. –> Google Prediction API – Machine learning for your business.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged algorithms, API, APIs, data, economic data, financial data, forecast, forecasting, forecasts, Google, Google Prediction, Google Prediction API, Information Technology, innovation, innovations, invention, inventions, machine learning, machine learning algorithms, predicting, prediction, Predictions, predictive model, predictive models, Software | Leave a comment

The main advantage of web search as a prediction tool may have less to do with its superiority over other methods than with its generality, low cost, and real-time nature.

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What Can Search Predict?

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Ask, Bing, forecast, forecasting, forecasts, Google, predicting, prediction, Predictions, Search Engines, search queries, search results, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, definitions, Explainers, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predict, predicting, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment