Tag Archives: Democratic vice president nominee

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The good point is that he dealt well with the fact that the VP prediction markets fed on primary indicators that are less reliable than the ones used for the political elections. – The bad point is that, at … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayth, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Joe Biden, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Tim Kaine, US politics, vice president prediction markets, VP prediction markets, VP-candidate prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ | 3 Comments

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Posted on August 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. [...] Mr. Obamaâ€™s decision had as much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, Tom Snee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 1 Comment

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

â€œFriend — I have some important news that I want to make official. Iâ€™ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.â€ Some blogger says his wife is fantastic. New York Times portrait of Joe Biden. UPDATE: Barack Obama‘s speech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Caveat Bettor, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Democratic VP nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, primary indicators, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP nominee, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 2 Comments

Tag Archives: Democratic vice president nominee

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

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