Tag Archives: Democratic party
State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.
I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
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Contents
a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state [...]
2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections
Folks,
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.
- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for [...]
2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
NewsFutures is the most usable prediction exchange I know of.
Each time I get to trade on a NewsFutures-run prediction market, I have the pleasure of my life.
Better than sex.
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A Democrat will be elected President in 2008.
© NewsFutures
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Plus, it’s easy to embed their dynamic charts. It works like a charm.
NewsFutures = awesome.
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Emile is too French, but he is smart, and his prediction exchange is working [...]
Barack Obama is the “presumptive” nominee of the Democratic party.
Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they’re too shy to tell.
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UPDATE: Read Andrew Sulivan’s analysis of Hillary Clinton’s speech.
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UPDATE: NewsFutures did not expired its [...]
75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.
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Oregon’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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NewsFutures
Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.
© NewsFutures
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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual
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2008 US Presidential Elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Next US President
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Winning Party
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Female President?
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Democratic Candidate
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Republican Candidate
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Source: [...]
Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.
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Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate):
A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to be lost on gravity-free planet Clinton, but privately they know the end is near.
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There’s a quasi consensus [...]
Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market [...]
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