Tag Archives: 2008 US presidential elections
The hype is over. The party is over. — Part II
Since the 2008 US presidential election, no more posts on prediction markets at Freakonomics.
Previously: Part I
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Hearthis post
The hype is over. The party is over.
With respect to the 2008 US presidential elections, the prediction markets just mirrored the polls (and took a losing bet on Missouri). In hindsight, most of the media coverage about prediction markets prior to November 4, 2008, was pure hype —based on the luck that InTrade got in the 2004 US presidential elections.
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Previously
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Hearthis post
Erik Snowberg on the prediction markets about the 2008 US presidential elections
Andy Eggers:
So to sum up, I liked the use of prediction markets to estimate the conditional general election probability for a candidate at a point in time, and I think it’s worth getting some estimates of how particular events moved this probability. I think at this stage the conclusions are a bit underdeveloped and oversold, [...]
A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price
Via Andrew Gelman
On November 3, 2008:
Hearthis post
“Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”
Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment.
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at least parity with the poll
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I agree with the above.
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their superiority over the pundits
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What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman?
John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. [...]
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