Tag Archives: 2008 US presidential elections

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

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SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

Posted on March 9, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

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Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -

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The hype is over. The party is over. — Part II

Posted on January 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Since the 2008 US presidential election, no more posts on prediction markets at Freakonomics. Previously: Part I -

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The hype is over. The party is over.

Posted on January 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

With respect to the 2008 US presidential elections, the prediction markets just mirrored the polls (and took a losing bet on Missouri). In hindsight, most of the media coverage about prediction markets prior to November 4, 2008, was pure hype … Continue reading →

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Erik Snowberg on the prediction markets about the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on January 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andy Eggers: So to sum up, I liked the use of prediction markets to estimate the conditional general election probability for a candidate at a point in time, and I think it’s worth getting some estimates of how particular events … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.

Posted on January 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should … Continue reading →

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A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price

Posted on January 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Via Andrew Gelman On November 3, 2008:

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Are prediction markets useful?

Posted on November 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. That’s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. That’s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading →

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