Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).

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Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment.

at least parity with the poll

I agree with the above.

their superiority over the pundits

What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman?

John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits&#8217- predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. But I disagree with that way of predicting the electoral college and assessing these predictions. With this completely flawed method, if you are damn wrong on a state and damn wrong (in the opposite way) about another state that has the exact same number of electoral votes, then you are a bright genius worth the Nobel prize of forecasting. Gimme a break. Enough with that voodoo way of assessing predictions about the electoral college. Do the assessment state by state.

InTrade and HubDub got lucky that their 2 mistakes (so to speak, in a non-probabilistic way) on Missouri and Indiana (both with 11 electoral votes) canceled themselves perfectly. IT WAS PURE LUCK. If their 2 mistakes had been made in the same direction (say, betting on Obama with the outcome going eventually to McCain), and/or their 2 mistakes had been done on 2 very dissimilar states (say, one with 6 electoral votes and the other one with 27 electoral votes), then we would have had reporters and bloggers bashing the prediction markets for the whole month of November.