Nostradamical is now 3 months into launch and building a loyal following. Its model is different from our prediction exchanges. It contains more social elements. Nostradamical looks like a multi-user blog with the prediction algorithm(s) as a background feature. Question creators can express themselves on the predictions they are interested in while inviting other users to forecast the predictions —-this is the DIY model pioneered by Inkling Markets in 2006. Users have fun…- Twitter, FaceBook and FriendFeed are integrated, now.
Nate Silver Predicts the Winners of the 2009 Oscars.
Via Jason Ruspini.
[…] X2 will identify major trends and disruptions in science, technology, and the practice of science over the next twenty years and their impacts on the larger society.
X2 will utilize an open-source web platform that will help individuals and organizations track and analyze global trends in science and technology. The project will employ bottom-up forecasting methods, making use of the collective intelligence of people with different backgrounds, domains of expertise, and geographic locations to synthesize larger patterns and trends. […]
He and his co-authors were the first to publish about the fact that flu-related searches on the Web are precise predictors of the upcoming influenza outbreaks.
Best wishes for the rest of their scientific career.
[*] “-Make him a Saint, now!”-, in Italian.
CORRECTION: It’-s Predictify who comes up with the $100k, not Rock The Vote.
Predictify (a prediction platform, not a prediction exchange) is partnering with Rock The Vote.
As I understand it (BEWARE: the Press release is not that clear about where the money comes from), Rock The Vote (a 501c, I suppose) forks over $100.000, which Predictify uses as a prize pool to be handed out between the winners of a 2008 US election forecasting game.
I don’-t get what Rock The Vote gets out of this deal, but that’-s their problem. Rock The Vote gets the free publicity.
I see it as a good idea, and I think that our prediction exchanges should be seeking out deals such as that one with non-profit organizations…- or commercial sponsors. It would attract more traders to our prediction markets.
#1. X Groups
- FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post —-without leaving the blog.
- FROM PREDICTIFY TO THE BLOGS: Number two, there is now a trackback widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that the blog readers can click and be connected to relevant questions on Predictify, based on the content in that particular post. As soon as one of the blog readers clicks a highlighted question, that question will have (on the Predicitif webpage) a trackback to the blog post —-theoretically pulling traffic from Predictify to that blog. The first problem with this second feature is that only the most popular trackback will be published on the particular Predictify webpage, as I understand it. I don’-t see how bloggers could be interested if there is no guarantee that their trackback will actually appear. The second problem is that we don’-t know whether Predictify abides by the “-do follow”- policy, which is a way for a website to injects Google PageRank juice to the website it links to. (The opposite policy is called “-no follow”-.) Only the “-do follow”- approach would get bloggers interested in that scheme. Predictify should clarify that.
- UPDATE: All the trackbacks will appear. They will be sorted by popularity. And, yes, Predictify has a “-do follow”- policy.
#2: Social Networking
I’-m told that Predictify will soon unveil a FaceBook application. We will see whether it’-s Predictify working on FaceBook or Predictify woking with FaceBook. See the difference? (YooPick works on FaceBook, not with FaceBook.)