Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Collective Forecasting

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Nate Silver:
I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had [...]

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.
Makes no sense at all.
The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.
DISAMBIGUATION: The “illiquid” adjective [...]

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’s memories?
Do you sense that the [...]

CrowdCast + SAP

Business Objects + Prediction Markets

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Why should you try Predictalot?

Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella?
Economists: Play with a true combinatorial prediction market with 9.2 quintillion outcomes and a single pool of liquidity, unlike almost any other of today’s [...]

Predictalot is a combinatorial prediction exchange.

“Predictalot is what is called a combinatorial prediction market.“

Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets

Most published papers on prediction markets (there aren’t many) paint a wildly rosy picture of their accuracy. Perhaps it is because many of these papers are written by researchers having affiliations with prediction market vendors.
Robin Hanson is Chief Scientist at Consensus Point. I like his ideas about combinatorial markets and market scoring rules, but I [...]

CrowdPark = collective forecasting in German

http://www.crowdpark.de/
Everything is explained in German on their blog. Sounds cool. It would be interesting to have an English version.

Libertarian journalist John Stossel explained InTrade’s prediction markets, and forgot BetFair.

ABC News, in 2008:

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