Technology Review publishes an uncritical article on collective forecasting used in business. – {CrowdCast}

How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company&#8217-s Future &#8211- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. &#8211- Technology Review

The URLs of the UKs General Election 2010

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Gordon Brown&#8217-s gaffe (&#8220-bigoted woman&#8221-, Gillian Duffy):

Twitter is more predictive than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). – [RESEARCH]

You could turnA Bernardo Huberman&#8216-s study around and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible.

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

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Nate Silver:

I&#8217-m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I&#8217-ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I&#8217-m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn&#8217-t necessarily mean the market is &#8220-efficient&#8221-, but we&#8217-ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it&#8217-s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.

Prediction Market Chart


More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities -not the BetFair ones.

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This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.

Makes no sense at all.

The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.

DISAMBIGUATION: The &#8220-illiquid&#8221- adjective refers to the UK political markets on InTrade &#8212-not the US political prediction markets.