How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review
“-Collective intelligence for senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot.
The “-betometer”- concept was poorly conceived. However, overall, it is a good tactic. It is a win.
Gordon Brown’-s gaffe (“-bigoted woman”-, Gillian Duffy):
I’-m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’-ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had them work 24/7 on trying to beat the Intrade contract, I’-m not sure if they could come up with anything sufficiently rigorous to provide them with a real advantage. (That doesn’-t necessarily mean the market is “-efficient”-, but we’-ll save that conversation for another day.) But for what it’-s worth, the Intrade contract, which is trading at 75 percent right now, now looks about right to me or perhaps even a hair pessimistic.