Category Archives: Collective Forecasting

The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Posted on January 9, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, derivatives, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, futures, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets | 1 Comment

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution — [PAPER]

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution – PDF file.

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, boolean network, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged 2012 elections, 2012 US presidential election, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, financial advisor, financial advisors, forecasting, forecasts, GOP, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, laws, Mitt Romney, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Regulations, Republican candidates, Republican Party, Republican primary, republicans, Rick Perry | Leave a comment

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, London School of Economics, Matthew Partridge, Mike Smithson, predicting, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures) harnesses the wisdom of crowds (scientists and engineers) for the US Air Force. — [LINK]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber (cited in Bloomberg story): Every company faces the challenge of [finding out] what our company really knows — how do I access it, when I need it, how I need it — to help drive decision-making or results … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets, US Air Force, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Posted on August 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting efficiency, forecasting precision, information completeness, markets, precision, predicting, prediction efficiency, prediction markets, prediction precision | 2 Comments

Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]

Posted on August 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged All Rockets Ready To Fly, American Civics Exchange, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchange genesis, forecasting, genesis, IDEAS, market genesis, predicting, prediction, prediction markets, Predictions, proposals | Leave a comment

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Posted on July 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, Long bets, Long Now Foundation, long-term, long-term predictions, mid-term predictions, predicting, prediction markets, social utility, socially valluable bets, socially valuable prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

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