Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)

Ex-HSX Max Keiser disses real-money prediction markets (again). — [VIDEO]

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The prediction market ideology still lives on. — [COMMENT]

David Pennock: Not to put too much faith into the unscientific Gartner hype cycle, but it does feel like a time of backlash responding to some early over optimism. As cooler heads prevail, and the technology speaks for itself, I … Continue reading

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David Pennock agrees that snubbing BetFair was a mistake. — [COMMENT]

David Pennock: Due to gambling laws and stigma, the PM industry has tried to distance itself from gambling, betfair, etc., probably mistakenly.

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Did the prediction market industry fail because of the lack of usability of the prediction markets? — [REBUTTAL]

David Pennock: I like an analogy of Playstation versus Wii. Just like Wii opened up video gaming to a mass audience including women, I think there’s room for simpler/friendlier sites like smarkets that can open up gambling to a much … Continue reading

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David Pennock on the state of the prediction market industry — [LINK]

Prediction markets offer: Accountability Meritocracy A marketplace to reward information release Real-time updates Accuracy Increasing ease of use, as the technology matures and diffuses Self funding

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Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading

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Jason Trost on BetFair: They haven’t innovated much, and they’re too pricey.

Jason Trost: Slow innovation: Aside from a few cosmetic tweaks, reliability improvements and the Starting Price feature, Betfair hasn’t innovated much over the last few years. For a company that boasts several hundred developers, it should be able to release … Continue reading

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A somewhat simplistic, but nonetheless interesting, article in which the predictive quality of the BetFair market is slagged off, because it upsets their traditional form book study methods (by implication, of course, if they are right, then everybody could/should/would just follow the late money and win).

Niall O’Connor offers you this link for free.

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Ex-BetFair Mark Davies defends betting in the wake of the latest sport corruption affair. – [VIDEO]

Excellent. Download this post if your feed reader does not show you the video. PS: Give me the name of the idiot who booted Mark Davies out of BetFair.

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Cantor Exchange and Trend Exchange defend the usefulness of movie hedging.

Lions Gate vice chairman Michael Burns said the markets “would allow a diverse group of motion picture industry participants, including studios, film distributors, theater owners, investors and other financial intermediaries within the motion picture industry to manage their risk and … Continue reading

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