Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)

At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 15, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] Now, do we need to call them *prediction* markets? I would agree that there is no real reason for that… All markets have information aggregation characteristics and sometimes it is annoying to see how much we reinvent the wheel when studying “prediction” markets, pretending that they are fundamentally new beasts. (The “we” includes [...]

Also posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, prediction markets

Google Wonder Wheel on Collective Forecasting

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 9, 2009 — Leave a Comment

I am publishing an update, because things have changed since last time. (Yes, “last time” was only 2 days ago. That’s the Internet for you. Life at the speed of light.) Google has spidered and computed more things. So, here is what we see, now. It is a more complete picture:
- Robin Hanson is still [...]

Also posted in Collective Forecasting, Internet Marketing | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Google, Google Search, Google Wonder Wheel, Justin Wolfers, Robin Hanson

Midas Oracle has a de facto monopoly on “collective forecasting”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

If you type “collective forecasting” in the 3 main search engines, Midas Oracle pops up as #1 in the results. Thanks to Emile of NewsFutures and Prof Robin for their devotion and plain hard work in pushing this industry keyword (and the underlying concept). It is all fair that Midas Oracle is reaping the benefits. [...]

Also posted in Humor, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged Bing Search, Chris Masse's manhood, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, Google Search, Humor, keywords, Midas Oracle, prediction markets, Search Engines, search results, Yahoo! Search

Patrick Young (InTrade’s fifth Beatle) still can’t figure out the industry he helped created.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 6, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Well, we’re here to help out the lost souls.
Patrick Young:

Director and Founder: Intrade
Privately Held; 11-50 employees; Capital Markets industry
September 1999 – February 2002 (2 years 6 months)
I was one of the founders and a director of the company Intrade which set up one of the first sports exchanges in Europe.
Nowadays there is a [...]

Also posted in Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Finance, People | Tagged betting markets, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, InTrade, Patrick Young, prediction markets

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 26, 2009 — 2 Comments

In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a great honor. The last time I created a new category, that was “science“, in honor [...]

Also posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Exchanges & Markets, Information Aggregation, Traditional Forecasting | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence that predicts, forecasting, Nate Silver, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Traditional Forecasting

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 22, 2009 — 2 Comments

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective intelligence solutions for companies are turning their back to the trading technology, from [...]

Also posted in Case Studies, Collective Intelligence, Consulting, Information Aggregation, Software | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence solutions, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Information Aggregation, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, software for prediction markets, Traditional Forecasting, wisdom of crowds

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 22, 2009 — 8 Comments

Robin Hanson:
There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies. Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets.
What Robin Hanson does not say to his gullible readers (mostly, young collegians who have no experience of real-life forecasting) is that:

When [...]

Also posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, Information Aggregation, Traditional Forecasting | Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, decision-aid markets, enterprise prediction markets, Information Aggregation, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, prediction market industry, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Traditional Forecasting, wisdom of crowds

How come prediction exchanges are ranking so low for American Idol?

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 21, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Midas Oracle has received many visitors from Google this week, thanks to the great work of Ryan from HubDub. I tried to understand why. Turn out when you type “american idol prediction market” (you can add the “s” at the end), Midas Oracle is on top, with HSX, BetFair and HubDub far behind. As for [...]

Also posted in Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing | Tagged American Idol, BetFair, Google Internet Search, Google Search, Google Web Search, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, HubDub, InTrade, prediction exchanges, prediction market industry, prediction market startups, prediction markets, Search Engines

A History of Betfair

Written by Niall O'Connor on May 19, 2009 — 2 Comments

This book represents the first attempt to chronicle the manner in which Betfair has revolutionised the global betting industry.

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Also posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Management, Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, Colin Cameron, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, The Sporting Exchange, You Bet

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 15, 2009 — 8 Comments

If you think of it, the business model of BetFair and InTrade should be to deliver free prediction market data to the world, while leveraging trading fees on the bettors. Agree?

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Also posted in Business, Exchange Management, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, bettors, business models, free, InTrade, prediction market data, prediction market prices, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, traders

Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)

At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.

Google Wonder Wheel on Collective Forecasting

Midas Oracle has a de facto monopoly on “collective forecasting”.

Patrick Young (InTrade’s fifth Beatle) still can’t figure out the industry he helped created.

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

How come prediction exchanges are ranking so low for American Idol?

A History of Betfair

Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees

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