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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Category Archives: All Guest Authors’s Posts
Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]
Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading
U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]
Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, FantasySCOTUS, forecasts, law, prediction markets, Predictions, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Tom W. Bell, U.S. Supreme Court
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The 2010 Global Warming Exchange has been closed.
Here. 2010 was a warm year, despite record snow and ice in highly populated areas. Here is the message I provided on the expiry: The NASA GISS GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2010 averaged out to 0.6325 Celsius above baseline. … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged betting markets, climate, event derivative markets, global climate, global cooling, global warming, Global Warming Exchange, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, weather
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Gold and Real Interest Rates
The impact of real rates on gold is becoming more widely appreciated, which in itself worries me. Part of the reason I like gold is that there is so much noise around it and few seem to understand what drives … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Finance, Financial Markets
Tagged gold, real rates, Real Returns
1 Comment
Technological change and asset returns
Peter Thiel thinks our entire civilization and culture is predicated on accelerating technological change. Specifically, technological growth has an important but poorly understood impact on economic growth, asset returns and the need to work over the course of one’s life. … Continue reading
More Garbage Words: Social Security, “A Minor Fiscal Issue”
Paul Krugman calls Social Security a minor fiscal issue, citing this report in which Social Security spending as a percent of GDP levels off at around 6% in 2030. For someone whose blogging modus operandi is pointing out disingenuous arguments … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Ethics, Politics
Tagged demographics, entitlements, Paul Krugman, social security
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Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger
His post, “The Myth of the Social Security Shortfall”, here, but if you don’t want to defer thinking, read Mish Shedlock on pension underfunding instead. Yes, taxes will have to go up, but it’s not as though sunsetting the Bush … Continue reading
The Interdependence of Prices and Gold
I gave a talk on Thursday night at the New York Investing Club meeting. The basic points: Gold does well when real rates of return are low. Real rates describe the price of gold much better than inflation alone. This … Continue reading
What’s different about Predictalot?
A predictalot user asked: What’s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities, Research
Tagged David Pennock, forecasting, forecasts, Predictalot, predicting, Predictions
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CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”.
First, a hearty congratulations to Robert Swagger and Trend Exchange. Along with the Cantor Exchange folks, they have run quite a gauntlet, and although there remains a tremendous obstacle in the form of the Lincoln amendment, I consider these exchanges … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Inventions & Innovations, Regulations
Tagged betting markets, box-office derivatives, Cantor Exchange, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivatives, economic purpose test, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futures, Hollywood, manipulation, MDEX, Media Derivatives, Media Derivatives Exchange, movie box office, movie business, movie futures, movies, MPAA, prediction markets, trading restrictions, Trend Exchange
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