Category Archives: All Guest Authors’s Posts

Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Guest Author

Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, liquidity, prediction, prediction markets | Leave a comment

U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]

Posted on April 30, 2011 by Tom W. Bell

Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, FantasySCOTUS, forecasts, law, prediction markets, Predictions, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Tom W. Bell, U.S. Supreme Court | Leave a comment

The 2010 Global Warming Exchange has been closed.

Posted on January 20, 2011 by Caveat Bettor

Here. 2010 was a warm year, despite record snow and ice in highly populated areas. Here is the message I provided on the expiry: The NASA GISS GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2010 averaged out to 0.6325 Celsius above baseline. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, climate, event derivative markets, global climate, global cooling, global warming, Global Warming Exchange, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, weather | Leave a comment

Gold and Real Interest Rates

Posted on December 16, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

The impact of real rates on gold is becoming more widely appreciated, which in itself worries me. Part of the reason I like gold is that there is so much noise around it and few seem to understand what drives … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged gold, real rates, Real Returns | 1 Comment

Technological change and asset returns

Posted on November 20, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

Peter Thiel thinks our entire civilization and culture is predicated on accelerating technological change. Specifically, technological growth has an important but poorly understood impact on economic growth, asset returns and the need to work over the course of one’s life. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Financial Markets, History, Science | Tagged demographics, diffusion of technology, Peter Thiel, productivity, Real Returns | 3 Comments

Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger

Posted on August 9, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

His post, “The Myth of the Social Security Shortfall”, here, but if you don’t want to defer thinking, read Mish Shedlock on pension underfunding instead. Yes, taxes will have to go up, but it’s not as though sunsetting the Bush … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Ethics, Politics, The Global Economy | Tagged debt, deficits, economy, inflation, Jason Ruspini, Mark Thoma, Mish Shedlock, Paul Krugman, Politics, public debt, social security, taxes, US economy, US politics | Leave a comment

The Interdependence of Prices and Gold

Posted on June 26, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

I gave a talk on Thursday night at the New York Investing Club meeting. The basic points: Gold does well when real rates of return are low. Real rates describe the price of gold much better than inflation alone. This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Finance, Financial Markets, Money, The Global Economy | Tagged demographics, gold, Real Returns, volatility | Leave a comment

What’s different about Predictalot?

Posted on June 25, 2010 by David Pennock

A predictalot user asked: What’s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities, Research | Tagged David Pennock, forecasting, forecasts, Predictalot, predicting, Predictions | 1 Comment

CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”.

Posted on June 16, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

First, a hearty congratulations to Robert Swagger and Trend Exchange. Along with the Cantor Exchange folks, they have run quite a gauntlet, and although there remains a tremendous obstacle in the form of the Lincoln amendment, I consider these exchanges … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Inventions & Innovations, Regulations | Tagged betting markets, box-office derivatives, Cantor Exchange, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivatives, economic purpose test, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futures, Hollywood, manipulation, MDEX, Media Derivatives, Media Derivatives Exchange, movie box office, movie business, movie futures, movies, MPAA, prediction markets, trading restrictions, Trend Exchange | Leave a comment