Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

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Betdaq’s financials

[This article by a guest author has been contested, for the reason that information about the bigger picture was missing. It is retired.]

Hearthis post

How confidential is your confidential data in the hands of online payment solutions? Is Moneybookers fully in tune with the law?

All we online gambling players, ploppies, punters, squares, sharps and sharks share the common need of moving our money around as quickly and painlessly as possible. With credit cards not always passing muster, online payment solutions Moneybookers and Neteller are a valuable resource. Also Paypal, which still services a limited gambling market, and Click2Pay, offering [...]

Wimbledon Betting Markets

Whilst Vaughan Williams’ research on the horse race betting market is highly supportive of the notion that transaction costs are a barrier to efficiency, recent research by David Forrest and Ian McHale, lecturers at the University of Salford, has highlighted the fact that despite the presence of low transaction costs in the (traditional fixed odds) [...]

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
On Sunday Tehran was relatively quiet compared to the past weeks street violence, [...]

eLab eXchange – Will Twitter Rule the World?

Will Twitter Rule the World?
Rising along side of the social networking revolution, Twitter, the short message and microblogging service, has become nearly as popular as social network sites like Facebook. With China blocking Twitter on the anniversary of Tienanmen Square, and Time magazine publishing a “how-to,” it’s fair to say that Twitter is now a [...]

The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.

An interesting piece in this morning’s FT by Gillian Tett.
The Chartered Financial Analyst Institute, which for many years had taught the so-called “efficient markets” hypothesis to thousands of students, asked its members for the first time if they trusted in “market efficiency” – and discovered that more than two-thirds of respondents no longer believed that [...]

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but [...]

Prediction Markets for Valuing Private Companies

Everyone seems to have an opinion on the future prospects of Facebook and Twitter. Some of us even feel strongly enough to want to bet on it. Unfortunately, the companies are privately held, and unavailable to be bet on in the traditional way, via the stock market. It is not just household names like Facebook [...]

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The doomsday clock probably moved up another notch this week with North Korea [...]

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