Previously: The prediction market approach
Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way.
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Daily Archives: September 14, 2008
The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach
These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):
– HubDub
– InTrade .NET …- [*] …- would get the full point if they were to switch the label “-price”- for “-probability”- on their charts.
– NewsFutures …- gets half a point. No mention of “-probabilities”- on their charts.
– Inkling Markets …- gets a quarter of a point.
– TradeFair …- gets an honorable mention, but won’-t show its charts to the non-registered public. 
[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat’-s tip.
As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of “-do what I say, not what I do“-?…- 
APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:
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UPDATE: See the comments…-
Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators?
Prediction markets: the future of decision-making – Companies are now making business decisions based on information employees provide via internal trading systems. – The Times of London – 2008-09-04
“-We use them [“them” = the enterprise prediction markets] as another point in the decision-making process, alongside asking experts and other business leaders,”- said Christina LaComb, a computer scientist in the R&-D lab at GE.
OK. You’-re using enterprise prediction markets- you’-ve gotten your name in the newspapers- you’-re “-cool”-.
And our good friend David Perry’-s gotten your money.
But do your event derivative traders have the same access as you do to “-experts”- and other “-business leaders”-?
Or do you leave them in the dark? In that case, your enterprise prediction markets would be clueless, useless, and worthless.
WORLDS MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.
