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UPDATE: Virgil’-s presentation is interesting. – (PDF file).
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Monitoring the wisdom of crowds
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Monthly Archives: July 2008
Independent Institutes weak blog post on prediction markets
I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only used as a jumping off point for an oft-repeated and boring argument that voters ought consider candidates outside the dominant parties.
Sadly, I think the think tank question I posed at the end of 2006 is still no: When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation?
So, I’-ll extend the donation offer made in that post through the end of 2009.
Previous blog posts by Mike Linksvayer:
- Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
- Bob Barr markets
- Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.
- Small comforts of prediction markets
- The Economist is taking suggestions.
- Long-term housing derivatives?
- Economists to Watch
Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.
Those morons at Fox Business spelled his last name “-Kostakis”-, in the video.
So, now you know why nobody watches Fox Business —-they are all on CNBC, who can spell correctly.
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I’-m not sure the video will go into our feed…- In case, it does not, download this post, or go to the link above…-
Summer Blockbuster’-s featuring Alex Costakis of HSX on Fox Business from formula-hsx on Vimeo.
Posting On Midas Oracle versus Presenting At The Third WorkShop
MIDAS ORACLE: 1,600 daily readers (600 visitors on the Web + 1,000 feed subscribers)
THIRD WORKSHOP: 40 people in the room. – [Psstt… All the links to the presented papers… here.]
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Ratio: 40 to 1.
There are 40 times more people on Midas Oracle than in that Chicago conference room.
TAKEAWAY: If your goal as a researcher is truly to get your ideas out, then come blogging with us on Midas Oracle.
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For Once
I agree with Nancy Pelosi.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
- That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
- If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
- If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
- Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
- You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
- Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
Yet another attempt at legalizing Internet betting and gambling in the United States of America
USA Today
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
- That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
- If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
- If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
- Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your resume / profile.
- You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
- Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
A good resume, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to Midas Oracle, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.
Last year, nobody would give the first fig about a “-Michael Giberson”-. He was insignificant. Now, with the orbital price of oil, Mike becomes hot, all of the sudden. I hope he’-ll mind some energy prediction markets, one day, when he has time.
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How to join Midas Oracle and how to blog with us here…-
How to connect with Midas Oracle on LinkedIn…-
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In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.
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UPDATE: He took the bait…-
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How InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully spanked the posteriors of Bobs little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads to an increase in transparency and understanding of event markets. It seems that the leading event market academics make no distinction between the benefits derived from academic owned markets like Iowa Electronic Markets and commercial market platforms like Intrade.
Yet many academics, with some notable exceptions, do temper their policy prescription to suggest a “safe harbor” for academic sites where research might be more generally available. As noted above Intrade has gladly supplied its event market data, typically free of charge to most of the leading prediction market academics and their students, and we are committed to encouraging the future study of event markets by continuing to supply our event market data free of charge or at very deep discounts. The academics that study event markets do a great service in developing our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of event markets. Some commentators suggest that market liquidity and breadth typically benefit all event market stakeholders. Thus far commercial platforms like Intrade seem to be providing the greatest depth and breadth in event markets.
As Intrade has been a staunch supporter of event market academic study, and supplies greater depth and liquidity in its event markets than any other platform, it seems strange not to be a preferred purveyor. Perhaps the predominant reason many academics have held back from advocating and treating all event markets alike is a sense that initiatives to clarify or unwind the legislation restraining the optimal development of event markets is unlikely to be achievable. It seems many academics and commentators suggest a slow bureaucratic and pragmatic caution rather than focus on the optimal result. While the optimal result may be more challenging to achieve, for consistency, for better price discovery for the benefit of all, as well as for the development of Intrade, we encourage CFTC to apply common goals, objectives and standards for all participants.
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Excellent.
However, simply to say that we want the “-optimal”- solution won’-t do the trick, alas. I’-ll blog about that, later.
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How InTrade CEO John Delaney tried to undo the great damage done to the prediction market industry by Bobs little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads to an increase in transparency and understanding of event markets. It seems that the leading event market academics make no distinction between the benefits derived from academic owned markets like Iowa Electronic Markets and commercial market platforms like Intrade.
Yet many academics, with some notable exceptions, do temper their policy prescription to suggest a “safe harbor” for academic sites where research might be more generally available. As noted above Intrade has gladly supplied its event market data, typically free of charge to most of the leading prediction market academics and their students, and we are committed to encouraging the future study of event markets by continuing to supply our event market data free of charge or at very deep discounts. The academics that study event markets do a great service in developing our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of event markets. Some commentators suggest that market liquidity and breadth typically benefit all event market stakeholders. Thus far commercial platforms like Intrade seem to be providing the greatest depth and breadth in event markets.
As Intrade has been a staunch supporter of event market academic study, and supplies greater depth and liquidity in its event markets than any other platform, it seems strange not to be a preferred purveyor. Perhaps the predominant reason many academics have held back from advocating and treating all event markets alike is a sense that initiatives to clarify or unwind the legislation restraining the optimal development of event markets is unlikely to be achievable. It seems many academics and commentators suggest a slow bureaucratic and pragmatic caution rather than focus on the optimal result. While the optimal result may be more challenging to achieve, for consistency, for better price discovery for the benefit of all, as well as for the development of Intrade, we encourage CFTC to apply common goals, objectives and standards for all participants.
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This discourse should be given to read to children in public and private schools, all over the world.
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