CONFUSED: Nate Silvers marshmallow politics – [VIDEO]
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Tag Archives: Politics
BetFair (a prediction exchange) + ComRes (a pollster)
They are jointly operating a new website, focused on the next UK general election:
http://www.electionpredict.com/
As of today, the British GOP is set to win. We’-ll see.
Ron Paul -> the good… and the ugly
The Ugly:
The Good:
Paul-Romney 2012
Marginal Revolutions Tyler Cowen = Political Pundit – [PREDICTIONS]
Robin Hansons blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) – [VIDEO]
Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and…- futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —-if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. -REDUX
There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions would tend to cluster around the 25 percent number), it is hard to know for sure.
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
– Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’-s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
– Paul Hewitt:
[…] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. […]
–->- I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the ’-simple’- prediction markets.