Tag Archives: Politics
OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.
See Jason Ruspini’-s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.
Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.
Max says that the political prediction markets are “-routinely manipulated”- and we often see “-price rigging”-…-
9:57 into:
What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been ahead of the commentary?
Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.
- Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’-s memories?
- Do you sense that the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade fits these 2 criteria?
UPDATE: I asked The Brain whether he meant generalist media or political media, and he meant “-generalist”-. That makes all the difference in the world.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
Max Keiser claims to have predicted the Lehman Brothers creative accounting thing.
PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.
Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed.
P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
Business Insider readers are rather skeptical of the InTrade insider trading story.
Plus, the event derivative is back to 55% [UPDATE: 47%] —-slightly above tossing a coin.
Here’-s The Hill on the prospect for the bill. –- More on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. -> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.
Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?
…-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.
ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.
SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]
In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing: