InTrade DOT NET –

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This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.

The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)

On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be &#8212-and I&#8217-m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in &#8220-beta&#8221- &#8212-so let&#8217-s give them time to improve their work.

Overall, it&#8217-s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.

OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub -but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.

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Los Angeles Times

Could it be because the journalist had googled &#8220-Olympics&#8221- for his/her research?

HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed well by Google.

SEO is key for marketing and P.R., folks &#8212-you see the evidence under your very nose with HubDub and the Olympics.

Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete

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I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of their model are rotten to the core.

BetFair was created in 1999 and started off in 2000. Since that time, 2 major things arrived on the world scene. Number one, we have seen the emergence of the prediction market approach. Number two, the Web has taken our lives, and Google has become the dominant Internet search engine. Here are how these 2 major trends are affecting BetFair negatively.

  1. Decimal Odds (a.k.a. Digital Odds). – The prediction market approach means that we attack the public with the news and their associated probabilistic predictions, expressed in percentages, where high prices mean high probabilities of happening. BetFair, at the contrary, approach the public with a betting universe and an arcane vocabulary (&#8221-backing&#8221- and &#8220-laying&#8221-) where low prices mean high probabilities of happening. That is totally counter intuitive.
  2. Non-Indexable Prediction Market Webpages. – Like it or not, Google is now the world&#8217-s #1 media. We &#8220-google&#8221- anything, first thing in the morning. None of the BetFair prediction market webpages can be indexed by Google and the other Internet search engines. That means that BetFair is missing out, in my estimation, on hundreds of thousands of Google visitors each year. Those Google visitors will favor other prediction exchanges (e.g., HubDub) whose prediction market webpages are indexed naturally by the Internet search engines.

The British, who drive on the wrong side of the road, don&#8217-t have the 2 most important keys of the future.

Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFuturess ones

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Because HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed highly by Google.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

In the 4 cases above, you can spot HubDub in the top 10 Google results.

I speculate that HubDub is going to harvest hundreds of thousands of Google visits in the next 12 months.

Which is probably higher that the BetFair blog will get from Google &#8212-and there is a low conversion rate (from the BetFair blog to the BetFair prediction market webpages), probably. With the HubDub model, the conversion rate is always 100%.

Nigel Eccles, this time, I am impressed.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
  • Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
  • Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
  • Free Money On The Table At InTrade
  • Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
  • Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about prediction market journalism.

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Good thing: I&#8217-m a pioneer (following Justin Wolfers&#8217- footsteps).

Bad thing: The whole world does not give the first fig about &#8220-prediction market journalism&#8220-. We will spend much energy introducing them to this new concept.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
  • Did ex-HSX Max Keiser cowardly give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website,, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
  • Big Brother
  • Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
  • 2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
  • Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?

How to optimize your prediction market blog (e.g., Midas Oracle, Caveat Bettor) or prediction exchange website (e.g., InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub) for Google Web Search -and all the other search engines out there.

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Interview of Google&#8217-s Matt Cutts by USA Today.

The basic SEO tips.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).