Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?

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Marcus Shea:

Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:

Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a &lt- 100 share transaction, ie, &lt- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It&#8217-s called human error.

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Why should you try Predictalot?

Smarkets want you to believe that they are going after a much bigger betting market than BetFairs one.

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Their CTO (Hunter Morris) is the first to present in the video. Watch out for his slide on casual and social betting.

Startups Rally &#8211- Part I &#8211- Elevator Pitches (4 of 4) from Plugg Conference on Vimeo.

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External Link: Smarkets

Expressing betting prices as percentages

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Can I choose my style of odds?

We show percentage odds by default, but you can select the odds display of your choice from the top of every page. We offer American, fractional, decimal and percentage odds. Because we allow fans to set their own odds you may see some strange looking fractional or American odds, we recommend percentage odds as we think they are the most flexible and readable choice.

Does anybody (in Great Britain or elsewhere) disagree with that? Explain your view in the comments.

I do agree with Smarkets.

Betfair the Masonic Lodge

The relationship between William Hill and the betting exchanges has not been a good one. On January 29, 2003, David Harding on the subject of Betfair’s impact on the the over-round said- “Some racecourse markets now return overrounds of only 1.2 to 1.3 per cent per runner. That is not sustainable. I cannot have a price mechanism for 50% of my business being desecrated.

In a recent interview with Betview magazine Ralph Topping, Hills’ current head had this to say of Betfair-

“‘I call Betfair the choirboys of the betting industry – “look at us we’re so innocent” – actually the exchanges are the biggest Masonic lodge there is.   They’re a massive secret society where illegal gambling is taking place. What would throw a spanner in the works is if William Hill came up with an exchange model which could be offered in our betting shops or through our telephone business.”

A fascinating portrayal of one of the most transparent betting companies in the world.

EDITOR&#8217-S NOTE: BetFair&#8217-s Mark Davies has his own take on the Topping statement.