Betfair Unleashed

No GravatarBetfair Unleashed

A new betting blog by Julian Moors (a &#8220-famous unknown&#8221-, as my dad used to say, when we met any stranger).

Best wishes to&#8230- whoever &#8220-Julian Moors&#8221- could be. :-D

RSS feed (whose URL is messed with, on the site): http://www.betfairunleashed.com/feed/

Please, send me the URLs of good blogs on TradeSports, InTrade, BetFair, Betdaq, MatchBook, HedgeStreet, TradeFair, NewsFutures, HubDub, Inkling Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, or else.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.

Do BetFair understand the statistical concept of expectation?

No GravatarGraham &#8220-Sharp&#8221- Minds:

[&#8230-] When I was interviewed by BetFair and they explained to me all of the problems with the multiples operation, most importantly the fact that it is a loss making despite the huge overrounds, I was asked for my opinion. I told them the simple solution was to take the bets on the chin like a traditional bookmaker and keep away from the markets as the bets they placed were likely to be taken by traders that are shrewder than their own, especially in-running where most of the BetFair trading activity actually occurs.

They were horrified at this prospect and were insistent on producing a formula to place the bets into the main BetFair market to reduce the risk as close as possible to zero. I was more horrified that they didn’t understand the statistical concept of expectation.

Discussion here, too.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

Towards an anti-drugs and anti-corruption body for all sports? – BetFairs proposal…

No GravatarPlay The Game [I like that website title :-D ]:

Betting industry leader calls for sport world anti-corruption agency

8 April 2008

by Michael Herborn

Mark Davies, managing director of global betting giant Betfair, has called for a world anti-corruption agency for sport. He envisions that the anti-corruption agency would operate along the same lines as the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), perhaps encompassing the role as both global watchdog for financial as well as pharmaceutical corruption of sport. “There isn&#8217-t a body that sits at the top of sport that&#8217-s something we&#8217-d love to see, a world integrity agency that encompasses both drugs and betting and any other form of corruption,” Davies told New Zealand newspaper the Sunday Star Times at the Leaders in Sport conference in Auckland on 4 April 2008. “For me it should be the same body. If a sportsman is trying to corrupt by enhancing his performance by drugs or trying to corrupt by minimising his performance and make money off the back of it, I don&#8217-t see a distinction.” [&#8230-]

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.
  • InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
  • Drawing a parallel between our reluctance to seek advice and the experts’ reluctance to take the market-generated probabilistic predictions in an un-discriminating, un-critical fashion

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

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  1. InTrade do not have any open &#8220-Bertie Ahern&#8221- prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed &#8220-Bertie Ahern&#8221- either.
  2. BetFair do have a series of &#8220-Bye Bye Bertie&#8221- prediction markets &#8212-still open at the time of writing. So I deduce that they would want to close the contracts just after the Irish Prime Minister&#8217-s effective resignation (in early May 2008). Which makes sense to me. (InTrade fell on Larry Craig&#8217-s false resignation, as you may remember.) The BetFair event derivative contract only states:
  • When will Bertie Ahern officially cease to be Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland? Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Users are responsible for their own positions. Users should be aware that they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Austria or Germany.

BetFair static chart (resignation to happen before January 2009):

PM Ireland 2009

As a matter of experiment, I am going to try to paste just below a hot-linked BetFair chart&#8230- to see if that works (that is, if BetFair accepts that bloggers do hot-link to their live charts). If you don&#8217-t see the &#8220-Bye Bye Bertie&#8221- chart appearing in the line just below, don&#8217-t mind.

UPDATE: The experiment is successful. BetFair do accept that bloggers hot-link to their live charts. Great news. (My readers may remember that I did that same experiment with InTrade&#8217-s advanced charts, some weeks ago, and that the experiment failed. But I&#8217-ll re-do that InTrade experiment, a bit later.)

Via HubDub, The Independent

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Thanks to enterprise prediction markets, senior management can move faster to deal with problems or exploit opportunities.
  • NOTE TO SELF: Set up customized e-mail alerts for brand-new, hot Midas Oracle stuff.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING, PART TWO: Matt Drudge features the prediction markets. + Reuters has the right terminology (“traders”, “prediction exchanges”) but ignores BetFair.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool.
  • HubDub will soon distribute a continuously-updating chart widget displaying the state of their prediction markets.

Do BetFair spy on their customers trading accounts?

No GravatarYou may have heard the rumor that BetFair do access customers&#8217- trading details and do use that intelligence.

From what I gather (the re-phrasing is mine):

  1. BetFair does never seed markets or take proprietary positions against its customers.
  2. At BetFair, taking advantage of customer information would be considered grounds for summary dismissal.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Do BetFair understand the “statistical concept of expectation”?
  • Towards an anti-drugs and anti-corruption body for all sports? — BetFair’s proposal…
  • TOTE Tasmania has entered into an agency agreement with Betfair Australia that will provide it with access to Betfair’s global customer base of more than one million punters.
  • Do InTrade allow financial scams to be published on their web forum?
  • The BetFair Starting Price is such a phenomenal success that their MSR-like system melted down under pressure last Saturday, April 5th, 2008, for the British equivalent of the Kentucky Derby —the Grand National at Liverpool.

BetFair Australias spin doctor tells all about their payments to the horse race industry.

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Crikey:

Andrew Twaits, director of corporate and business affairs at Betfair [Australia], writes:

Re. &#8220-High Court shock for the racing industry&#8221- (28 March, item 20). I wanted to drop you a note to clarify some important facts following your article in the Crikey newsletter.

Towards the end of your article you said, &#8220-&#8230-Betfair have offered to pay a fee of 27 cents out of every $100 bet. The TAB currently pays a fee of $5 in every $100 wagered!&#8221- Both those statements are false.

First, Betfair offered Racing NSW a product fee based on a percentage of gross profits- not turnover. We have never offered to pay Racing NSW (or any other racing body in Australia) a percentage of our turnover.

Second, the TAB does not pay NSW Racing or the NSW Government as a percentage of its turnover. It makes its payments as a percentage of its revenue – just like Betfair has proposed. See the Betting Tax Act (NSW) 2001 to see exactly how the TAB is taxed. The requirement to pay product fees to racing based on revenue is found in the Racing Distribution Agreement between the TAB and the industry – not surprisingly, we don’t have a copy but the payment model is referred to in Figure 20 of the Wagering Industry Review Issues Paper published last week by Alan Cameron AM. You can read a copy here.

To understand the practical difference between the TAB paying a percentage of turnover vs. a percentage of gross profits, you need only consider how much money goes to the racing industry or government when the TAB runs a zero take-out promotion such as &#8220-Fat Quaddies&#8221-. The result is that it doesn’t matter whether they &#8220-turn over&#8221- $100,000 or $10 million&#8221-, the industry and government receives nothing – because the TAB makes no revenue. That’s not a criticism of the TAB, they do it to get their aggregate takeout rates below the statutory threshold, and the promotions are great for racing, but it does highlight the false nature of the conventional wisdom that the TAB pays on turnover.

In relation to our offer to Racing NSW, its worth pointing out that Racing NSW has declined to tell anyone what they believe we or any other interstate wagering operator – including bookmakers and TABs – should be paying for the &#8220-right&#8221- to cover NSW racing. Nor will they say publicly whether they think that any interstate wagering operators who do pay a fee should be able to advertise, as the local operators can do.

As a final point, before we were licensed in Australia, we offered to pay every State racing body 20% of our gross revenue (from our global customer-base related to betting on their races. That offer was rejected and discussions were cut off. We accrued product fees for the racing bodies at that rate the entire time we were licensed and we still hold them in trust. To date, only Tasmanian Racing and RVL have accepted the accrued product fees.

UPDATE: Deeper analysis by Bill Saunders&#8230-

Independent production company seeks deep throats to spill beans on online poker industry and BetFair Poker.

No GravatarBetting Market:

I am a researcher employed by a leading award winning UK based independent production company, that specialises in factual programmes. We are currently researching the online poker industry, for a forthcoming documentary that will look at the broader issue of the regulation of the online gambling industry.

I am interested in hearing from people who were or are involved in any disputes with their online poker provider. I would be particularly interested to hear from persons involved in the recent incidents at Absolute Poker and Ultimatebet. And I am keen to track down anybody with inside information relating to the recent Betfair heist (not least the player who goes under the name &#8220-Chillindude&#8221-).

All information received will be treated in the strictest confidence and anonymity will be afforded to anybody that wishes to appear in the programme, but does not wish their identity to be known.

In the first instance, please contact me at the address below, so that we can arrange a meeting.

Email: pbenckendorf (at) web.de

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.
  • Comments are often more interesting than the post that ignited them.
  • Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.
  • How should prediction market firms (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) deal with Blogosphere’s criticism?
  • BetFair’s future bet-matching logic
  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.

The economic model that BetFair Australia operates under does not compensate the industry for putting on the show.

No Gravatar&#8230- said some kind of horse racing official from Down Under.

Via mister Betting Market.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Play-money prediction exchange HubDub is a phenomenal success.
  • BetFair Australia’s spin doctor tells all about their payments to the horse race industry.
  • Meet Jeffrey Ma (at right on the photo), the ProTrade co-founder, and whose gambling life is the basis of the upcoming movie, 21.
  • Independent production company seeks deep throats to spill beans on online poker industry and BetFair Poker.
  • BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

Is the BetFair marketing message a big lie?

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Rab Bibater&#8217-s comment on Midas Oracle:

[…] BetFair needs to nip the current round of noise in the bud once and for all. It needs to clarify its own advertisements, in which it states that &#8220-Because you are betting against other punters, &#8216-you could&#8217- get better value-&#8221- which in the light of alleged revelations that its trades in its own markets, would seem to amount to a misrepresentation. […]

Hummm&#8230- For each of 100 trades made on BetFair, how many are made by real-people &#8220-punters&#8221- and how many are made by algorithm-advised BetFair Malta? (I have just sent this question for their today&#8217-s Q&#038-A. :-D )

YouTube: BetFair&#8217-s TV ad in the UK

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

BetFair withdraws / improves its brand-new matching-bet logic, which was (kind of) endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board.

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Via Dave, BetFair:

Changes to Betfair’s bet matching logic – update

Betfair Customer Services 19 Mar 10:47

We’ve been trialling a new process for matching customer bets recently which has prompted considerable debate among some of our customers. Some of that debate has been misinformed and we apologise for that. It is clearly our responsibility to ensure customers are given a clear understanding of what we are actually doing and, hopefully, this comprehensive communication and the forum Q&amp-A today will help explain what is happening.

The purpose of the recent change is to increase a customer’s chance of getting a bet matched. However, we recognise that the change we’ve made has been the subject of concern for some customers. In response to customer feedback, we will suspend matching bets across selections when an applicable market is turned in-play. For the time being, bets will be matched on in-play markets as they were prior to the change. Matching across selections will be reintroduced only when we can offer best execution or its equivalent. As we have explained before, the new bet matching process does not affect any Horse Racing markets.

Until recently Betfair’s bet matching process would only look to match customer back bets against lay bets on the same selection in the same market. There are often circumstances where we could improve on that, for example, where we have customer back bet requests on all selections but no suitable lay bets to match them against.

In the past those requests would have been initially unmatched, and may or may not have been subsequently matched by other customers. When Betfair first started, we used to perform this additional cross-matching service for customers. This was suspended in 2002 for purely technical reasons – we didn’t have a mechanism for matching across selections without having a negative impact on the performance of the site.

Betfair’s bet matching process is now more efficient and that allows us to reintroduce this functionality. Whilst leaving the existing logic that matches backs vs. lays unchanged, we’ve added functionality that matches bets across runners ONLY if those bets could not have been matched conventionally. At the moment, that doesn’t give us the option of providing a price improvement even where this would be theoretically possible. This is because matching across selections only happens after the conventional matching process that allows us to improve prices has completed.

We are working towards having a bet matching process in place that both allows customers to see the best prices they could have a bet cross-matched at, and to provide a price improvement where this is possible. However, that’s technically much more complex because it requires significant changes to the process that matches backs vs. lays. Understandably, before we could implement that there’s also a significant amount of testing required, both to ensure that the functionality works as expected and to ensure that the performance of the site isn’t affected, and this is taking longer than anticipated.

Clearly if bets are matched where a price improvement would theoretically be possible, but which the current process can’t provide, then matching those bets will result in Betfair accruing the difference. There’s been speculation that the motivation for the change is the short-term additional revenue for Betfair that not being able to provide price improvements would cause. That isn’t the case. The model for Betfair’s betting exchange remains to match customer bets where possible, to provide price improvements where possible, and to charge a commission on winning positions. The motivation for introducing this change is to make it easier for customers to get bets matched, and to reduce the load on the site by making it pointless for customers who use automated tools to bombard the site with traffic looking for arbitrage opportunities.

However, because we’re not currently in a position where we can improve prices when matching across selections, and to clearly demonstrate that the motivation for the change is to improve customers’ chances of having bets matched rather than any short-term profit, we’ve decided to make the following changes:

1. We have suspended, with immediate effect, matching bets across selections for in-play markets until best execution – or its equivalent – can be implemented.

2. We will shortly reintroduce bet matching across selections but ONLY where bets have been requested at prices that we couldn’t improve even if best execution was in place.

e.g. if a customer requests 2.0 to back a tennis player, and another requests 2.0 to match his opponent we will match those bets. However if we have customer requests to back those two players at 1.99 and 2.0 respectively we will not match them. Those bets will remain unmatched.

3. In the near future we will introduce functionality that both displays prices that could be matched across selections and matches them providing a price improvement wherever possible.

In every case, we will communicate any proposed change in advance of it being introduced onto the site.

Your feedback on this issue has been much appreciated and we continue to welcome your comments via the forum, our helpdesk or directly with members of our staff.

While the forum Q&amp-A is to answer questions specifically related to this topic we will hold regular forum Q&amp-A sessions covering a much wider range of topics in the very near future.

Sounds great.

Any thoughts, folks?

They didn&#8217-t clear up the issue of how and when BetFair operates on its own markets, though.

[See this post for more on “best execution”.]