Chris Masses InterPol file

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Chris Masse .com:

Chris F. Masse is NOT a Fraud

But come on, would saying he is really be libel? Seems like a rather subjective statement to me in the first place. What is the metric for &#8220-fraud-ship&#8221-, anyway?

Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse, of &amp-, is NOT a fraud. (But he is slightly overweight, and often stinks of elderberries and old coffee.) Styling himself as &#8220-the most forward thinker in the field of prediction markets,&#8221- Chris daily attempts to offer commentary on prediction markets, economics, and related subjects, from his blog, Midas Oracle.

However, as even a casual reader can glean from Mr. Masse&#8217-s writing, he certainly has an axe to grind. Never mind questions as to whether the man might be bi-polar, or why his posts attract so few comments and engender so little discussion&#8230-no, let us concentrate on what Mr. Masse is saying. From the get-go, Chris attempts to drill into the mind of every reader exactly what a prediction market is, and what its uses are. In a few paragraphs located at the top of his blog&#8217-s main page, Mr. Masse attempts to distill his particular views on the utility of prediction markets while simultaneously dissuading any ideas to the contrary, as though all other writing and actual research in the field is a moot point. Only Chris&#8217-s opinions matter, but they must be taken on faith.

And what are Mr. Masse&#8217-s qualifications to make such claims as are replete throughout his writings? He never provides them, conveniently, but this does not stop Chris from criticizing others who have verifiable experience in the &#8220-nitty-gritty&#8221- of prediction markets. Robin Hanson, the &#8220-father of prediction markets&#8221-, is a particular punching-bag favorite, although Chris apparently has a strong aversion to responding to Robin&#8217-s comments when he posts.

Chris, always a master of logic, claims to take conversation seriously, and in a recent post entitled &#8220-It is not about Midas Oracle&#8230- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.&#8221- wrote:

  1. If you are an economist, and have nothing to say about the current banking, financial and economic crisis (the worst in our generation), then you don&#8217-t matter anymore.
  2. If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, then you don&#8217-t matter anymore.

Mr. Masse seems to be a master of the arbitrary, as he has synthesized rationale for obsoleteness based upon reactions to a very short Economist story that did nothing less than report the facts. And obsoleteness according to whom? Mr. Masse, of course.

But perhaps Mr. Masse missed the critical point that the story had nothing negative to state about prediction markets themselves, simply some observations on their adoption. In conclusion, actually, the story contains these two lines:

Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters. Perhaps the best way to find out when prediction markets will finally take off is to ask your employees—using a prediction market.

Chris, that sounds pro-prediction market to me. Or did you perhaps simply need an excuse to take pot-shots at &#8220-economists&#8221- and &#8220-prediction market consultants&#8221- because &#8220-they&#8221- did not share your reaction against fabricated story content that is not there?

Chris Masse gets a vote of no confidence from me. Any further evidence required to diagnose Mr. Masse&#8217-s ineptness in providing a factual discussion of prediction markets can be found at his blog, Midas Oracle, which you can read for yourself. Mr. Masse is obviously working to overcome something, I am just not sure what. Perhaps you could inform us, Chris?


Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not.

Opacity versus Openness

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Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.

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Forecasting Principles should index BusinessWeek.

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Andreas Graefe,

Please, index the BusinessWeek news article (see the page #2, too) on your IIF webpage.

I believe it&#8217-s an Earth-shattering piece featuring major thinkers of the field of prediction markets, who were interviewed by that bright journalist &#8212-smart enough to sense who are the truly important prediction market experts who count nowadays.

And if you need an alternative title:

BusinessWeek: The most famous and forward-thinking experts in the field of prediction markets talk about the future regulations of event derivative exchanges in the United States of America. – (page #2) – (print page)