Chris Masse .com:
Chris F. Masse is NOT a Fraud
But come on, would saying he is really be libel? Seems like a rather subjective statement to me in the first place. What is the metric for “-fraud-ship”-, anyway?
Chris F. Masse, of chrisfmasse.com &- midasoracle.org, is NOT a fraud. (But he is slightly overweight, and often stinks of elderberries and old coffee.) Styling himself as “-the most forward thinker in the field of prediction markets,”- Chris daily attempts to offer commentary on prediction markets, economics, and related subjects, from his blog, Midas Oracle.
However, as even a casual reader can glean from Mr. Masse’-s writing, he certainly has an axe to grind. Never mind questions as to whether the man might be bi-polar, or why his posts attract so few comments and engender so little discussion…-no, let us concentrate on what Mr. Masse is saying. From the get-go, Chris attempts to drill into the mind of every reader exactly what a prediction market is, and what its uses are. In a few paragraphs located at the top of his blog’-s main page, Mr. Masse attempts to distill his particular views on the utility of prediction markets while simultaneously dissuading any ideas to the contrary, as though all other writing and actual research in the field is a moot point. Only Chris’-s opinions matter, but they must be taken on faith.
And what are Mr. Masse’-s qualifications to make such claims as are replete throughout his writings? He never provides them, conveniently, but this does not stop Chris from criticizing others who have verifiable experience in the “-nitty-gritty”- of prediction markets. Robin Hanson, the “-father of prediction markets”-, is a particular punching-bag favorite, although Chris apparently has a strong aversion to responding to Robin’-s comments when he posts.
Chris, always a master of logic, claims to take conversation seriously, and in a recent post entitled “-It is not about Midas Oracle…- It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.”- wrote:
- If you are an economist, and have nothing to say about the current banking, financial and economic crisis (the worst in our generation), then you don’-t matter anymore.
- If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, then you don’-t matter anymore.
Mr. Masse seems to be a master of the arbitrary, as he has synthesized rationale for obsoleteness based upon reactions to a very short Economist story that did nothing less than report the facts. And obsoleteness according to whom? Mr. Masse, of course.
But perhaps Mr. Masse missed the critical point that the story had nothing negative to state about prediction markets themselves, simply some observations on their adoption. In conclusion, actually, the story contains these two lines:
Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters. Perhaps the best way to find out when prediction markets will finally take off is to ask your employees—using a prediction market.
Chris, that sounds pro-prediction market to me. Or did you perhaps simply need an excuse to take pot-shots at “-economists”- and “-prediction market consultants”- because “-they”- did not share your reaction against fabricated story content that is not there?
Chris Masse gets a vote of no confidence from me. Any further evidence required to diagnose Mr. Masse’-s ineptness in providing a factual discussion of prediction markets can be found at his blog, Midas Oracle, which you can read for yourself. Mr. Masse is obviously working to overcome something, I am just not sure what. Perhaps you could inform us, Chris?
–
Previously:
– Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not.
– Opacity versus Openness
–
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“Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters.”
I agree it is the *only* positive remarks of the Economist article.
Then, should EPMs be reserved to employees younger than 25 years old? What’s the application that comes out of this observation?
“although Chris apparently has a strong aversion to responding to Robin’s comments when he posts.”
And then, in the next paragraph, where I am quoted, people can plainly see that I have responded to the objection made.
“Chris, that sounds pro-prediction market to me.”
What about the rest of the article?
What about Niall O’Connor’s analysis of the whole text?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..l-o-conno/
“why his posts attract so few comments and engender so little discussion”
Humm… That is factually untrue. Look at the recent activity.
“a very short Economist story that did nothing less than report the facts.”
FACT:
QUOTE
NOT SO long ago, prediction markets were being tipped as a fantastic new way to forecast everything from the completion date of a vital project to a firm’s annual sales. But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even fervent advocates admit much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of their value.
UNQUOTE
FACT: Enterprise prediction markets are not working as they were touted.
Perhaps that might explain why Panos was so keen to rely on Mechancial Turk. In his recent analysis of the site’s demographics, over 40% of repondents were between the age of 21 and 30, whilst almost 60% were female.
Panos’ research about Mechanical Turk is really deep.
“I agree it is the *only* positive remarks of the Economist article.”
Not so. Read closer.
“And then, in the next paragraph, where I am quoted, people can plainly see that I have responded to the objection made.”
You were responding to Robin’s comments in the next paragraph?
“You were responding to Robin’s comments in the next paragraph?”
Read that paragraph on the text above this comment.
“What about Niall O’Connor’s analysis of the whole text?”
I don’t know; what about it?
“Humm… That is factually untrue. Look at the recent activity.”
Key word, “recent”. Look at the pre-drama-causing activity. There is close to none.
The server crashed yesterday evening. Too many people publishing comments.
“Panos’ research about Mechanical Turk is really deep.”
…
“but this does not stop Chris from criticizing others who have verifiable experience in the “nitty-gritty” of prediction markets.”
Indeed, I was talking about the big picture —not about the “nitty-gritty”, which is true that I don’t master.
“In a few paragraphs located at the top of his blog’s main page, Mr. Masse attempts to distill his particular views on the utility of prediction markets while simultaneously dissuading any ideas to the contrary, as though all other writing and actual research in the field is a moot point.”
What explains that so many bloggers linked to my analysis, then?
– Barry Ritholtz, the #1 Wall Street blogger.
– Andrew Gelman, a bright stats professor.
– Michael Giberson, the best energy researcher in the world… well, at least, in Texas.
– etc. etc. etc.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-markets/
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~…..ark-1.html
http://knowledgeproblem.com/20…..n-markets/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2…..n-markets/
http://predicts.betfair.com/20…..n-markets/
http://betting.betfair.com/spe…..80209.html
“Only Chris’s opinions matter, but they must be taken on faith.”
I follow prediction markets and research done on them since 2003.
http://www.chrisfmasse.com/
Over the years, I have developed an expertise, from which you can benefit by reading my blog, Midas Oracle.
http://www.midasoracle.org/
[Sorry for the plug. I couldn’t resist.]
Chris,
I don’t agree with your opening post on Midas Oracle. You can state your opinion but there should be an invitation there for people to come on here and explain their views.
Back to the Eurovision Song Contest 2009 markets….
As I predicted a month ago, there is a huge discrepancy when comparing the polls with betfair’s market, which didn’t have any activity at that time.
Betfair (winning market):
Norway 3.7 = 27%
Greece 6.7 = 15%
Malta 16 = 6%
Now the polls, unfortunately the only one I can access at this time (and I’m lazy), but you’ll see the same effect when considering other (huge) polls.
(#Votes)
http://agrino.org/esc/vote/2009.html
Greece 3814
Un. Kingdom 1159
Turkey 1145
People from Turkey and Greece vote more than other countries, but nevertheless….
Norway … only 295 Votes !
Finland and Sweden get more votes on average, yet, according to betfair Norway is a huge favorite to win the contest.
We are not just talking about overcoming bias here, there is something else going on. Not sure what it is but there is something vastly superior to (real money)prediction markets, and you will notice the same effect on other markets like big brother etc. I think I have a feeling what it is, but I will keep myself from speculating at this point in time.
You have 2 months left to study these markets !
“I don’t agree with your opening post on Midas Oracle.”
Medemi, what is wrong, and you would change it for what?
I am all ears.
Without getting into too much details (I’m lazy), you’re pissing people off.
Remove that “ha ha ha”… you’re not that smart. You’re very smart, just not THAT smart.
I envision you as someone who goes fishing from time to time, and when you get bored you throw in a stick of dynamite – to see what comes floating to the surface.
It has had its effect, but won’t be beneficial in the medium to long term.
About that article, it was actually a constructive piece. That’s why people rated it rather positive.
You have a good point that I could make this intro shorter. I will take a look to see whether that would be better… Let me see…
Mr Medemi
Perhaps you and some others, having read the following analysis of the demographics of Mechanical Turk, could tell me exactly of whom and what the Mechanical Turk audience was representative;
http://behind-the-enemy-lines……phics.html
Do you think that if I had asked the same question to one hundred toilet cleaners that I would have got the same result?
Perhaps a more unbiased survey, would have explained to the target group, the history and lifecycle of prediction markets, and,as Mr Masse has said, allow them to have seen previous Economist postings on prediction markets.
Considering the academic qualifications of this fellow Panos, I am surprised that he has put up this result as a positive for prediction markets, as I am equally surprised that you purport to see it as a positive. Take the rose tinted glasses off and look again. The reason Mr Masse has aroused the ire of some hick from the sticks, is that he has pointed out of a profound truth; the growth curve fro prediction markets is a downward sloping one. They are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting. Moreover, the odds are strongly in favour that most of the EPM vendors will be out of business over the next 18 months – why do you think that they are getting so angry.
I have shortened the intro.
Shorter is better.
I basically disagree with everything it says but that’s a subjective matter.
Who is “we” anyway ?
OK. “We” is moi and some others.
Tomas,
personally I couldn’t care less about what the economist writes, as I was given a brain of my own. For the neutral observer unfamiliar with prediction markets, I can imagine why they would rate it positive – because it is a constructive article and because it offers opportunity (in their mind) that they hadn’t been aware of previously.
For the die-hards in the field of prediction markets, expectations may have been high, disappointment the result. People look at things from different perspectives.
As for mechanical turk, I don’t see any problem with demographics. The question that should always be asked is, does a tool measure what we want it to measure, and one has to be very careful when interpreting the results.
And no… it didn’t measure whether PM’s are rising or falling.
As for your (and Chris’) approach to prediction markets, I can see where you are going – the industry has made many mistakes. They don’t know what they are selling and what they should be selling (with a few exceptions) but then neither do you. That is why we should have the debate, that is why I so desperately want some people to come on here who have been betting on these markets for many years, day in day out, putting their cash where their mouth is, learning the hard way.
The bottom line is, we have to blow this thing wide open in order to be succesful. This includes offering sports markets in the US. But we should also put great emphasis on betting integrity. That is always where my focus has been. All the rest, including the social utility of PM’s, will follow from there IMO.
Niall, Tomas:
If other people (I mean the MTurk participants) disagree with your assesment of the article, it does not mean that they are incorrect, neither the fact that you have different opinion than them means that you are incorrect. I asked them to tell me their opinion about the article, I did not ask them to prepare a study on the future of prediction markets.
I just wanted to examine what is the perception of an “independent” set of readers. Now, to examine the issues of bias: I have the demographics of many Turkers, so I examined whether, age, gender, and income affect the perception of the article. In all three cases, I could not detect a statistical significant effect. I ran the regressions independently, and with all three variables. No statistically significant effect. There may be one, but with my current sample size of 100, I could not detect one. If you have the demographics of the Economist readers, I would be glad to examine what happens with that target audience in mind.
Just accept the result and go on. On average, people see the article as neutral, more of a mixture of positive and negative news (as you will see nobody gave a 0, 1, 9 or 10).
I view it as objective presenting both the positives and the negatives. The more people learn about the concept, its advantages and its shortcoming, the more objective decisions they can make, and their expectations will be in line with reality.
“I asked them to tell me their opinion about the article, I did not ask them to prepare a study on the future of prediction markets. I just wanted to examine what is the perception of an “independent” set of readers.”
That’s the point. Niall’s opinion and my opinion should have more weight than a bunch of uninformed people recruited on the cheap on the Web.
Thanks for the Mechanical Turk study and for your insights.
http://ads.economist.com/the-e…..fall-2006/
It is more than likely, that were one to ask readers of the Economist whether the article was positive, or negative, as to the prediction markets, that they would employ their rather large brains, search the economist archive, and do some background reading. Then, when presented with all of the evidence, they would answer the question….
“In the light of ….”
I am not really quite sure what your point is …are you saying that demographics do not affect the outcome; influence the degree of bias?
I am sorry, but I deem the Mechanical Turk survery to be meaningless.
That’s the point. Niall’s opinion and my opinion should have more weight than a bunch of uninformed people recruited on the cheap on the Web.
Of course. Because we all know that experts are the best predictors.
Panos, experts’s opinions is more valuable than uninformed people’s opinions.
Who is behind?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..is-behind/
Chris Masse will admit to being behind chrismasse.com and/or overcomingmidas.com.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..midas-com/
How to set Reverse IP Lookup to anything that you like (or dislike, should I say, in this case)… including a NewsFutures server that does not exist in reality…!!!…
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-reality/
Did the attacker try to pin it on, not just one, but *two* prediction market software vendors?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..e-vendors/
A little follow-up on the Eurovision Song Contest as I’ve just listened to all the songs.
Bloody hell… even your dog could get this one right. And so are the polls.
Well, enjoy anyway. This one has all the ingredients.
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/…..os?id=2044
“Yet many pilot projects run so far have shown that junior staff can often be surprisingly good forecasters.”
I agree it is the *only* positive remarks of the Economist article.
Then, should EPMs be reserved to employees younger than 25 years old? What’s the application that comes out of this observation?
“although Chris apparently has a strong aversion to responding to Robin’s comments when he posts.”
And then, in the next paragraph, where I am quoted, people can plainly see that I have responded to the objection made.
“Chris, that sounds pro-prediction market to me.”
What about the rest of the article?
What about Niall O’Connor’s analysis of the whole text?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..l-o-conno/
“why his posts attract so few comments and engender so little discussion”
Humm… That is factually untrue. Look at the recent activity.
“a very short Economist story that did nothing less than report the facts.”
FACT:
QUOTE
NOT SO long ago, prediction markets were being tipped as a fantastic new way to forecast everything from the completion date of a vital project to a firm’s annual sales. But although they have spread beyond early-adopting companies in the technology industry, they have still not become mainstream management tools. Even fervent advocates admit much remains to be done to convince sceptical managers of their value.
UNQUOTE
FACT: Enterprise prediction markets are not working as they were touted.
Perhaps that might explain why Panos was so keen to rely on Mechancial Turk. In his recent analysis of the site’s demographics, over 40% of repondents were between the age of 21 and 30, whilst almost 60% were female.
Panos’ research about Mechanical Turk is really deep.
“I agree it is the *only* positive remarks of the Economist article.”
Not so. Read closer.
“And then, in the next paragraph, where I am quoted, people can plainly see that I have responded to the objection made.”
You were responding to Robin’s comments in the next paragraph?
“You were responding to Robin’s comments in the next paragraph?”
Read that paragraph on the text above this comment.
“What about Niall O’Connor’s analysis of the whole text?”
I don’t know; what about it?
“Humm… That is factually untrue. Look at the recent activity.”
Key word, “recent”. Look at the pre-drama-causing activity. There is close to none.
The server crashed yesterday evening. Too many people publishing comments.
“Panos’ research about Mechanical Turk is really deep.”
…
“but this does not stop Chris from criticizing others who have verifiable experience in the “nitty-gritty” of prediction markets.”
Indeed, I was talking about the big picture —not about the “nitty-gritty”, which is true that I don’t master.
“In a few paragraphs located at the top of his blog’s main page, Mr. Masse attempts to distill his particular views on the utility of prediction markets while simultaneously dissuading any ideas to the contrary, as though all other writing and actual research in the field is a moot point.”
What explains that so many bloggers linked to my analysis, then?
– Barry Ritholtz, the #1 Wall Street blogger.
– Andrew Gelman, a bright stats professor.
– Michael Giberson, the best energy researcher in the world… well, at least, in Texas.
– etc. etc. etc.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-markets/
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~…..ark-1.html
http://knowledgeproblem.com/20…..n-markets/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2…..n-markets/
http://predicts.betfair.com/20…..n-markets/
http://betting.betfair.com/spe…..80209.html
“Only Chris’s opinions matter, but they must be taken on faith.”
I follow prediction markets and research done on them since 2003.
http://www.chrisfmasse.com/
Over the years, I have developed an expertise, from which you can benefit by reading my blog, Midas Oracle.
http://www.midasoracle.org/
[Sorry for the plug. I couldn’t resist.]
Chris,
I don’t agree with your opening post on Midas Oracle. You can state your opinion but there should be an invitation there for people to come on here and explain their views.
Back to the Eurovision Song Contest 2009 markets….
As I predicted a month ago, there is a huge discrepancy when comparing the polls with betfair’s market, which didn’t have any activity at that time.
Betfair (winning market):
Norway 3.7 = 27%
Greece 6.7 = 15%
Malta 16 = 6%
Now the polls, unfortunately the only one I can access at this time (and I’m lazy), but you’ll see the same effect when considering other (huge) polls.
(#Votes)
http://agrino.org/esc/vote/2009.html
Greece 3814
Un. Kingdom 1159
Turkey 1145
People from Turkey and Greece vote more than other countries, but nevertheless….
Norway … only 295 Votes !
Finland and Sweden get more votes on average, yet, according to betfair Norway is a huge favorite to win the contest.
We are not just talking about overcoming bias here, there is something else going on. Not sure what it is but there is something vastly superior to (real money)prediction markets, and you will notice the same effect on other markets like big brother etc. I think I have a feeling what it is, but I will keep myself from speculating at this point in time.
You have 2 months left to study these markets !
“I don’t agree with your opening post on Midas Oracle.”
Medemi, what is wrong, and you would change it for what?
I am all ears.
Without getting into too much details (I’m lazy), you’re pissing people off.
Remove that “ha ha ha”… you’re not that smart. You’re very smart, just not THAT smart.
I envision you as someone who goes fishing from time to time, and when you get bored you throw in a stick of dynamite – to see what comes floating to the surface.
It has had its effect, but won’t be beneficial in the medium to long term.
About that article, it was actually a constructive piece. That’s why people rated it rather positive.
You have a good point that I could make this intro shorter. I will take a look to see whether that would be better… Let me see…
Mr Medemi
Perhaps you and some others, having read the following analysis of the demographics of Mechanical Turk, could tell me exactly of whom and what the Mechanical Turk audience was representative;
http://behind-the-enemy-lines……phics.html
Do you think that if I had asked the same question to one hundred toilet cleaners that I would have got the same result?
Perhaps a more unbiased survey, would have explained to the target group, the history and lifecycle of prediction markets, and,as Mr Masse has said, allow them to have seen previous Economist postings on prediction markets.
Considering the academic qualifications of this fellow Panos, I am surprised that he has put up this result as a positive for prediction markets, as I am equally surprised that you purport to see it as a positive. Take the rose tinted glasses off and look again. The reason Mr Masse has aroused the ire of some hick from the sticks, is that he has pointed out of a profound truth; the growth curve fro prediction markets is a downward sloping one. They are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting. Moreover, the odds are strongly in favour that most of the EPM vendors will be out of business over the next 18 months – why do you think that they are getting so angry.
I have shortened the intro.
Shorter is better.
I basically disagree with everything it says but that’s a subjective matter.
Who is “we” anyway ?
OK. “We” is moi and some others.
Tomas,
personally I couldn’t care less about what the economist writes, as I was given a brain of my own. For the neutral observer unfamiliar with prediction markets, I can imagine why they would rate it positive – because it is a constructive article and because it offers opportunity (in their mind) that they hadn’t been aware of previously.
For the die-hards in the field of prediction markets, expectations may have been high, disappointment the result. People look at things from different perspectives.
As for mechanical turk, I don’t see any problem with demographics. The question that should always be asked is, does a tool measure what we want it to measure, and one has to be very careful when interpreting the results.
And no… it didn’t measure whether PM’s are rising or falling.
As for your (and Chris’) approach to prediction markets, I can see where you are going – the industry has made many mistakes. They don’t know what they are selling and what they should be selling (with a few exceptions) but then neither do you. That is why we should have the debate, that is why I so desperately want some people to come on here who have been betting on these markets for many years, day in day out, putting their cash where their mouth is, learning the hard way.
The bottom line is, we have to blow this thing wide open in order to be succesful. This includes offering sports markets in the US. But we should also put great emphasis on betting integrity. That is always where my focus has been. All the rest, including the social utility of PM’s, will follow from there IMO.
Niall, Tomas:
If other people (I mean the MTurk participants) disagree with your assesment of the article, it does not mean that they are incorrect, neither the fact that you have different opinion than them means that you are incorrect. I asked them to tell me their opinion about the article, I did not ask them to prepare a study on the future of prediction markets.
I just wanted to examine what is the perception of an “independent” set of readers. Now, to examine the issues of bias: I have the demographics of many Turkers, so I examined whether, age, gender, and income affect the perception of the article. In all three cases, I could not detect a statistical significant effect. I ran the regressions independently, and with all three variables. No statistically significant effect. There may be one, but with my current sample size of 100, I could not detect one. If you have the demographics of the Economist readers, I would be glad to examine what happens with that target audience in mind.
Just accept the result and go on. On average, people see the article as neutral, more of a mixture of positive and negative news (as you will see nobody gave a 0, 1, 9 or 10).
I view it as objective presenting both the positives and the negatives. The more people learn about the concept, its advantages and its shortcoming, the more objective decisions they can make, and their expectations will be in line with reality.
“I asked them to tell me their opinion about the article, I did not ask them to prepare a study on the future of prediction markets. I just wanted to examine what is the perception of an “independent” set of readers.”
That’s the point. Niall’s opinion and my opinion should have more weight than a bunch of uninformed people recruited on the cheap on the Web.
Thanks for the Mechanical Turk study and for your insights.
http://ads.economist.com/the-e…..fall-2006/
It is more than likely, that were one to ask readers of the Economist whether the article was positive, or negative, as to the prediction markets, that they would employ their rather large brains, search the economist archive, and do some background reading. Then, when presented with all of the evidence, they would answer the question….
“In the light of ….”
I am not really quite sure what your point is …are you saying that demographics do not affect the outcome; influence the degree of bias?
I am sorry, but I deem the Mechanical Turk survery to be meaningless.
That’s the point. Niall’s opinion and my opinion should have more weight than a bunch of uninformed people recruited on the cheap on the Web.
Of course. Because we all know that experts are the best predictors.
Panos, experts’s opinions is more valuable than uninformed people’s opinions.
Who is behind?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..is-behind/
Chris Masse will admit to being behind chrismasse.com and/or overcomingmidas.com.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..midas-com/
How to set Reverse IP Lookup to anything that you like (or dislike, should I say, in this case)… including a NewsFutures server that does not exist in reality…!!!…
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..n-reality/
Did the attacker try to pin it on, not just one, but *two* prediction market software vendors?
http://www.midasoracle.org/200…..e-vendors/
A little follow-up on the Eurovision Song Contest as I’ve just listened to all the songs.
Bloody hell… even your dog could get this one right. And so are the polls.
Well, enjoy anyway. This one has all the ingredients.
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/…..os?id=2044