Robin Hanson in a comment, over there.
See also that question for Mike “-Barbecue”- Giberson.
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Ah, Kansas…- Barbecues, pickup trucks, rednecks, country music, and…- the local FOX News.
Despite that one blip on the radar [New Hampshire], Strumpf said futures are still the best way to predict the way things will go from here.
Spot the SIDEBAR (which is not located on the sidebar, actually), and click on the little square, just below “-video”-, to watch the report.
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Alas, that paper is not free to access.
Andrew McAfee’-s post reveals this:
Prediction markets were (sic) very much like stock markets. They contained securities, each of which had a price. […-]
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Not sure why they used the past tense.
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Prediction markets are in fact event derivative markets.
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Papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, etc., are free to download.
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Via George Tziralis, of Ask Markets.
Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
He bases his brilliant reasoning on “-rumors”- and total ignorance of the participation inequality law.
Another academic fella who would be better off researching his topic before blogging on something he does not master.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Robin Hanson:
[…-] We rarely seek out advice, and when we do it is usually on much smaller decisions. […-] One reason we avoid getting advice is that it lowers our status relative to those who give advice. Of course this is also makes asking for advice a good way to flatter and supplicate. Not sure if this explains the puzzle though. But all this doesn’-t seem to bode well for fielding decision markets on the biggest organizational decisions.
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It would not make sense for political experts to spend their work days reading the political prediction markets, only. They are paid to produce poll reports and analysis, which then inform the event derivative traders. The polls and the political memos are the primary sources of information, which determine the direction of the political futures markets.
In the same vein, it would not make sense for us to be seeking advice all the time. We will learn more in our lives by making mistakes and correcting them. Maybe that’-s the reason we don’-t like seeking advice: we know we get better by discovering ideas, making good and bad decisions, and learning from all that on our own.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Excellent comment from our national Jason Ruspini.
[Conversation started off at Felix Salmon’s.]
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Via Yahoo! Research scientist David Pennock (pictured in the video, with, in the background, a whiteboard full of complex mathematical equations, which impressed the young New York Post journalist)…- this New York Post video (embedded just below).
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John Delaney’-s statement that people (did he say “-pundits”- or “-people”-?…-) were predicting a John Kerry victory in November of 2004 (while InTrade was predicting that George W. Bush would be re-elected) should be backed by supportive evidence. It’-s difficult to quantify the chatter in newspapers, magazines, TVs, blogs, etc. Did someone do that for the 2004 presidential elections? I know that the polls were favoring Bush, slightly, but I don’-t know whether the political buzz was quantified scientifically, really.
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I have created a “-Prediction Market Videos”- category in my “-Links”- page. I have listed there the InTrade and the Jed Christiansen webspots at YouTube.
Any other link(s) to suggest, folks?
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Jed Christiansen: What is a prediction market?
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Jed Christiansen: How can I use a prediction market for my business?
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VIDEO – (it’-s a Guatemala-based website) – 2007-10-24
I have clicked on the second blue link, on that webpage, and Window Media Player opened, and now I am watching The Master Of All Universes lecturing a group of politics students…-
The main difficulty in developing efficient public policies is misinformation and false beliefs. The traditional information institutions are the media academics, and informal communications. These institutions have limitations in providing reliable, efficient, useful and enough information to make decisions. Speculative markets base their profits on the prediction of price patterns and are proving to be an efficient information institution. Betting markets have been better and faster predictions than experts because manipulators develop more accurate information. Therefore, speculative and betting markets have to become the central institution on political institutions in order to have effective public policies.
Click here to read the chapter “-Decision Markets for Policy Advice”-.
Great. But the second part of the video is more painful to follow. The students’- questions are sometimes inaudible.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Asia Times:
[…-] Outperforming Taiwan’-s polls shouldn’-t be hard. They’-re notoriously bad as a forecast of election outcomes. In late 2006, for example, many media polls underrated the pro-independence party’-s support – a recurring problem. Taiwan’-s prediction markets did a much better job of estimating vote shares (the island’-s two markets both called the Kaohsiung mayoral election wrong, but that contest was a statistical dead heat). “-Most opinion polls usually have 20 to 30% ‘-no answer’-,”- said Lin Jih-wen, director of the Center for Prediction Markets. “-We don’-t have missing data or a sampling bias, that’-s our strength.”-
The market has now picked the strong likelihood of victory by the China-friendly candidate Ma Ying-jeou. Time will tell if it’-s got the right guy. But even if it doesn’-t, the markets’- enthusiastic reception shows how Asia – like the US and Europe – has embraced such markets as a powerful fortune-telling tool.
A “-powerful fortune-telling tool”-? Jesus. 
“-Outperforming”- the Taiwanese advanced indicators which they are feeding on? Humm…-
[Mike Giberson will write a comment, below, reminding me of Prof Koleman Strumpf’-s work (PDF file) showing that the historical prediction markets were accurate enough, even though the scientific polls were not invented yet. Yes, I know of that, Mike, but I still don’-t get whether it’-s a puzzle or a mystery. …- Do you?]
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse: