Prediction Markets at Google – by Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani, Andrew McAfee

No GravatarAlas, that paper is not free to access.

Andrew McAfee&#8217-s post reveals this:

Prediction markets were (sic) very much like stock markets. They contained securities, each of which had a price. [&#8230-]

Not sure why they used the past tense.

Prediction markets are in fact event derivative markets.

Papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, etc., are free to download.

Via George Tziralis, of Ask Markets.

Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “Annette 15”, the once-hot female poker star sponsored by BetFair Poker, does blog only twice a month on the official BetFair blog… when she blogs at all… if you call that blogging.
  • Inkling Markets bring in awards, honors, advisors, and new clients —leaving competition in the dust.
  • No need of enterprise prediction markets to boost intra-corporation communication
  • Inkling Markets is included in the 2008 list of “Cool Vendors” by Gartner.
  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks

2 thoughts on “Prediction Markets at Google – by Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani, Andrew McAfee

  1. Michael Giberson said:

    Not sure what you are getting at, Chris.  These guys look like serious researchers to me.  The article cited is a case study primarily intended for use in teaching, not the typical academic article aiming for journal publication, but nonetheless represents real research.


    I know you are probably just blanching at the “like stock markets” phrasing.  I agree with you there – it is a bad analogy which presents misleading connotations.  But I wouldn’t dismiss the authors as un-serious just based upon use of a bad analogy to introduce the idea of prediction markets.


    By the way, when I look at Andrew McAfee’s blog, I see three full paragraphs and not just two lines.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    @Michael Giberson: It would be better if the article were free for all to read. All papers from Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz and Koleman Strumpf are free to download.

    [I have change one line in the text.]

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