Author Archives: admin

The Malta LGA and the Alderney AGCC at the London ICE: no answers and nobody available.

Posted on by
2

No Gravatar

This is the rather long-promised followup to my previous articles on the Malta LGA, the ex CEO of the LGA Mario Galea, and also the Alderney Gambling Control Commission.

–

I attended the 2009 International Casino Exhibition in January this year for the purposes of speaking to the Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority and the Alderney Gambling Control Commission.

–

My reason for seeking out the LGA were complaints at Malta-based sportsbooks Interwetten and BetChance. Betchance is covered in detail in my Betchance article here, and the Interwetten matter is described in great detail in the Interwetten report on my own site.

–

I was looking for the Alderney Commission to raise issues which I described in the AGCC article for Midas Oracle – namely, why the AGCC considers it acceptable for a licensee to revoke a player&#8217-s winnings after the player followed all the rules to the letter.

–

Those above-mentioned articles are infinitely more interesting than anything I can say here. The visit was a monumental waste of time.

–

To give the LGA credit, they were at least available to talk, which is more than can be said for the AGCC.

–

I spoke to two members of the LGA&#8217-s legal department, Dr. Edwina Licari and Dr. Joseph F. Borg. I had been given Dr. Licari&#8217-s name by the &#8220-complaints manager&#8221-, one Frances Blenheim, who told me she would not be in attendance herself. She also said that Dr. Licari would be up to speed with the matter.

–

However, Dr. Licari knew nothing about my case. I said &#8220-hey, your friend Frances told me to talk to you!&#8221-, to which the lady replied that although the complaints woman had notified her that I was intending to visit, she had NOT told her anything about the case. As such, she was in no real position to say anything other than that which would have been complete guesswork.

–

So, zero out of ten for that.

–

I felt a little sorry for Dr. Licari. She looked frankly terrified during my entire visit, as if she thought I could be on the verge of doing something totally unpredictable (granted, always a possibility). This, in its turn, put me slightly on edge.

–

Never mind. Onwards to Betchance.

–

I had pepared a sheet of paper with reports from Sportsbook Review, detailing in brief the unfolding situation, namely that Betchance&#8217-s debts were around $100,000, the silence was absolute and the Malta LGA still listed them. I read this out to Dr. Borg.

–

He told me that Betchance&#8217-s license was under &#8220-notice of suspension&#8221-.

–

And that was all. Because of this notice, no comment was possible.

–

I also quoted ex-CEO Galea&#8217-s comments, that the Betchance players were &#8220-lying&#8221-, and that people who questioned the LGA should watch their backs.

–

Again, no comment was possible. Galea would have to speak for himself. And, of course, Galea is no longer part of the LGA.

–

In fairness to the LGA I should add: Betchance&#8217-s license was suspended two weeks after this, on February 2nd – see their suspended licenes page.

–

Also in fairness, Dr. Borg was a nice enough fellow, who offered to look at my own Interwetten case. We also glanced over other general matters – he pointed out that the LGA was not a court of law and could only make recommendations, and acknowledged that the Interwetten players&#8217- ten month wait for just a response from the LGA was unacceptable.

–

However, answers there were none.

–

So then I sought out the Alderney Commission.

–

A &#8220-States of Alderney&#8221- stand there indeed was. Unfortunately, there were no more than two reps of the Gambling Control Commission.

–

So could I please come back later?

–

So I did. Still nobody. OK, try again, shall we?

–

Next time, I spoke to a lawyer – somewhat out of desperation, as I could see I was getting nowhere with anyone on the actual commission. I told this gentleman I wanted to discuss matters pertaining to player complaints – could he be of help?

–

He said he&#8217-d listen, but it wasn&#8217-t his department so he would be unlikely to be able to shed any light on my concerns.

–

So we should probably just leave it at that, eh?

–

Good idea. No sense in wasting anymore time.

–

So I departed.

–

In a fairly bad mood.

–

And that was it. No answers from anyone. The Malta LGA couldn&#8217-t say anything, and Alderney was barely there.

–

I&#8217-ll finish off this non-article with a customary rant – I think it&#8217-s justified:

–

This exhibition, and others like it, is a quintessentially perfect representation of the gambling industry. It&#8217-s like candy floss. It looks lovely, but one lick and it&#8217-s gone – or, in this case, one flick of the duster. There is no substance. You go up to a snappy looking stand, full of smart looking people wearing nice suits, and you think: hey, this is the business. Then you ask them a question, and you discover there&#8217-s nothing there. There isn&#8217-t even a bit there, there is nothing. A question: nothing. Another question: nothing. Try somewhere else, and you can&#8217-t even ask a question in the first place, because despite all the throngs of people in evidence, nobody has anything to do with anything of substance. One puff and it&#8217-s gone. Back to nothing.

–

Which is all rather like Las Vegas, or any other gambling centre: monumental homages to nothingness, with no real entertainment other than for the masochistically inclined.

–

So, I suppose I got what I expected so shouldn&#8217-t really complain.

–

Thank you for reading my non-report on my non-visit to the non-event that was the 2009 Earls Court International Casino Exhibition. If it bored you, think about me going to it and writing about it, and hopefully you&#8217-ll feel a lot better.

–

My next report will be on an online poker scandal currently and painfully being played out. It is, I promise, more interesting. :D

–

How to leverage Midas Oracle to get visitors for your prediction market website

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

Today, we will look at an SEO strategy that Dee Barizo calls “indirect SEO&#8220-.

Indirect SEO is leveraging sites that rank well on Google. Basically, you create content and optimize it for keywords. However, you don&#8217-t place the content on your site. Instead, you find a site [Midas Oracle PR6] that ranks well on Google and have them publish it. You get traffic [and PageRank injection] by inserting a link that points back to your site in your content.

To see how this strategy works, do watch this video, which lasts only 5 minutes:

Come blogging with us on Midas Oracle.

WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.

Posted on by
2

No Gravatar

This clarification from our good doctor David Pennock shows how indispensable this research scientist is to small people like us. :-D Without David Pennock, the field of prediction markets would collapse like a castle of cards. Ha! ha! ha!&#8230-

As a blogger, WeatherBill presents a difficulty: How to you categorize it? I fill it in these 4 categories:

  1. insurance (obviously)-
  2. finance (because it is hedging)-
  3. exchanges (because of what our good doctor Pennock said above, see the title)-
  4. betting (because the reverse of hedging is speculation)-
  5. UPDATE: I just added &#8220-hedging&#8221- &#8212-so that&#8217-s 5 categories now, probably too many. (It probably shows my readers that I am confused&#8230- and really need a &#8220-research scientist&#8221-. Ha! ha! ha! :-D )

Who needs pundits track records when we have prediction markets?

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

Emile Servan-Schreiber:

Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures?

You could suggest that particular stocks be listed in relation to particular new stories and their possible outcomes. Then, as you invest in particular outcomes, your prediction portfolio would either grow or shrink, providing us all with an objective measure of your foresight. You could feature on your blog a widget displaying in real-time the &#8220-net worth&#8221- of your various predictions.

Other advantages of this approach would include:

– Forcing a detailed specification of possible outcomes-
– Having you compete directly (bet against) the general public-
– Measuring how much your columns can influence price movements for various predictions-
– Leading by example to show other pundits how it&#8217-s done.

There are various types of prediction markets out there, so you can pick the venue where you&#8217-d feel most comfortable:

– Play-money only, like NewsFutures– [or HubDub :-D ]
– Real betting (illegal) like Intrade-
– Charity-driven, like Bet2give.

If the idea intrigues you, please contact me at [email protected] and we can get you started right away!

Emile Servan-Schreiber
CEO, NewsFutures

Excellent.

Readers, do click on the link (which will bring you to the New York Times), and do click on &#8220-Recommended&#8221- under Emile&#8217-s comment &#8212-so that his pitch for the prediction markets will be more visible to all the people reading the comments there. Thanks. Appreciated.

American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of Trade

Posted on by
4

American Civics Exchange is enabling what InTrade (circa 2006, when they applied for the eBOT status) couldn&#8217-t&#8230- &#8212-getting the CFTC stamp of approval, and running a real-money prediction exchange from within the US territory (as opposed to offshore). The ACE does not have any direct domestic competitor, right now, but HedgeStreet could enter the political turf, later on.

ace

American Civics Exchange is a play-money and real-money prediction exchange focused on politics. Its contracts pay out depending on whether given political outcomes (e.g. enactment of legislation, regulatory decisions, etc.) take place. The contracts are based on the idea of &#8220-event derivatives&#8221- &#8212-pretty much like the weather derivatives that enable companies that are financially exposed to deviations in temperature (utilities, farms, etc.) to hedge that exposure. The ACE political contracts enable any commercial companies to hedge their financial exposure to things like increased tax rates, enactment of harmful legislation, and adverse regulatory decisions. Speculators are also welcome, of course.

The seven initial contracts are:

  1. Increase capital gains/dividend income tax rates-
  2. Elimination of the manufacturers&#8217- tax deduction for oil companies-
  3. Enactment of &#8220-card check&#8221–
  4. Enactment of &#8220-cap and trade&#8221–
  5. The EPA granting California&#8217-s Clean Air Act waiver-
  6. Increase in the minimum wage-
  7. Taxation of carried interest as regular income.

The future prediction markets might feature these topics:

  1. Various new financial services regulations-
  2. Additional industry bailouts-
  3. Major healthcare reform-
  4. FDA drug approvals-
  5. Windfall profits tax on oil companies-
  6. Renegotiation/dissolution of existing trade agreements-
  7. Resolution of major class action lawsuits.

The Delaware-incorporated American Civics Exchange will be operating as an &#8220-exempt board of trade&#8221- pursuant to CFTC regulations, the Commodity Exchange Act, and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. Last week&#8217-s launch consists solely of the play-money prediction exchange, with free accounts available to the general public. In the coming weeks, the real-money prediction exchange will open shop. Eligible contract participants [see 1(a)12] will then fund their accounts and begin live trading.

UPDATE: On February 10, 2009, the American Civics Exchange received an official acknowledgment from David Stawick, Secretary of the CFTC. The CFTC website, however, does not yet list ACE in their directory of eBOTs. It will, ultimately.

–

What ACE says (in their media kit) about hedging:

To offset a hypothetical $100,000 negative exposure to a proposed increase in the capital gains tax rate, a market participant would place a bid on 1,000 contracts. If that order were filled at $30, the position would cost $30,000 (excluding transaction costs). Matching such a bid does not require a coincident order to sell 10,000 contracts. As with established exchanges, the liquidity of a robust marketplace of buyers and sellers will enable even large orders to be automatically matched to batched bids submitted by an unlimited number of participants, including both speculators and natural hedgers.

If the tax increase is enacted before 12/31/10, the contract holder would receive $100,000, offsetting the impact of the tax increase. The contract holder can also sell the contract back into the marketplace at the prevailing price at any time before the expiration date, provided another party is willing to purchase the contracts at that price.

–

Press release:

Online Futures Market Enables Participants To Hedge Exposure To Political Events

NEW YORK, March 20 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ &#8212- American Civics Exchangecorp, Inc. announced today that it has launched The American Civics Exchange, the first US-based commercial market for political futures. The Exchange enables traders to hedge and speculate on political risk through derivative contracts based on the outcomes of underlying events, including increases in tax rates, enactment of &#8220-card check&#8221- legislation, increases in minimum wage rates, enactment of &#8220-cap and trade&#8221- legislation, and other legislative, regulatory, and legal outcomes.

The ability to offset exposure to such events using contracts traded on the Exchange will enable risk managers and investors to reduce unwanted risk and protect themselves from adverse political outcomes. All contracts that trade on the Exchange are binary in nature, meaning they settle at $0 or $100, and are fully cash-collateralized, eliminating any counterparty, credit, or clearing risk.

The Exchange&#8217-s initial launch consists of a &#8220-play money&#8221- market for prospective participants and interested members of the general public. This launch will be followed by the roll-out of the &#8220-real money&#8221- market, which will be open only to eligible contract participants (as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act). The play money market will continue to operate parallel to the real money market and will remain available to individuals not eligible to trade in the live market, members of the press, academic and policy researchers, and other interested parties. In coming weeks, the Exchange will phase in additional collaborative and community-based tools for trading and research.

Philip &#8220-Flip&#8221- Pidot, one of the founders and the CEO of the Exchange, said, &#8220-The inauguration of a new Presidential administration and the unprecedented legislative and regulatory changes being considered in response to the financial crisis have only magnified the bottom-line impact of public policy decisions. For the first time, businesses and individuals have a market-based solution to hedge against these uncertain political risks.&#8221-

The American Civics Exchange operates as an Exempt Board of Trade pursuant to federal law and CFTC regulations. Users can register accounts and trade through the secure online trading platform located at http://amciv.com.

Requests for additional information can be directed to [email protected] or (646) 257-2426.

For media inquiries, please contact Audrey Mullen at [email protected] or (703) 548-1160.

–

American Civics Exchange

UPDATE: The Hill on ACE&#8230-

Nostradamical.com – 3 months later, they are doing fine.

Posted on by
2

No Gravatar

–

Nostradamical is now 3 months into launch and building a loyal following. Its model is different from our prediction exchanges. It contains more social elements. Nostradamical looks like a multi-user blog with the prediction algorithm(s) as a background feature. Question creators can express themselves on the predictions they are interested in while inviting other users to forecast the predictions &#8212-this is the DIY model pioneered by Inkling Markets in 2006. Users have fun&#8230- Twitter, FaceBook and FriendFeed are integrated, now.

http://www.nostradamical.com/predictions

Patrick Young = The InTrade co-founder you never heard about

Posted on by
4

No Gravatar

The greatest benefit of being the most popular blogger on prediction markets is the private e-mails I get from all the corners of the globe. I come to meet, over the Internet, the world&#8217-s finest luminaries &#8212-from the Academia or from the entrepreneurial world.

Now, try to guess who that guy is:

  1. He wrote about prediction markets (before that moniker was applied) and betting exchanges in his book &#8220-Capital Market Revolution!&#8220-, published in 1999 &#8212-while Andrew Black was developing BetFair.
  2. He co-founded GSX/Tradesports/InTrade in 2000.

You have probably never heard of him&#8230- but you should compute him starting today &#8212-Patrick Young. And, of course, he blogs and twitters&#8230- Don&#8217-t miss his ultra-copyrighted podcast on the &#8220-fascinating&#8221- American Civics Exchange&#8230-

250 members of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets

Posted on by
Reply

No Gravatar

250

–

1. How To Join Us

  • From within LinkedIn, FaceBook, or Google Reader / Google Mail, send me (Chris Masse) an invite and I&#8217-ll accept it.
  • You are also invited to join the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn. We accept everybody (traders, analysts, researchers, consultants, exchange managers, bloggers, etc.).
  • [As for joining Midas Oracle as a commenter or poster, see this other webpage.]
  • I can introduce you to another member of our business network. Just ask me (Chris Masse), and I&#8217-ll do.

–

2. LinkedIn Network

–

For your information, here is the listing of the co-managers of the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn:

  • Jed Christiansen of Mercury
  • Tony Clare of BetFair
  • John Delaney of InTrade
  • Nigel Eccles of HubDub
  • Chris Hibbert of Zocalo
  • Chris Masse of Midas Oracle
  • David Pennock of Yahoo! Research
  • Michael Robb of BetFair
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures
  • Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets

–

– The ownership of the group could be transferred to the yet-to-be-created &#8220-Prediction Market Institute&#8221-, at one time in the distant future.

–

Once you have joined our Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn, here&#8217-s how to make its logo visible on your profile.

–

–

– After you have joined our Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn, please make its logo visible on your profile. (In your listing of groups you belong to, you should read, near each one, &#8220-change visibility&#8221-. Click on that.)

– You are also invited to join Chris Masse&#8217-s network at LinkedIn.

–

Our Prediction Market People – (from the two networks listed just above)

– Bernd Ankenbrand (Gexid Manager)

– Paul Architzel (Counsel at Alston &amp- Bird)

– Maurice Balick (NewsFutures CTO)

– Pierluigi Buccioli (Entrepreneur and Betting Exchange Trader- Owner of Bookmakers Review)

– Jason Carver (Entrepreneur and Engineer)

– Yiling Chen (Professor at Harvard University)

– Jed Christiansen (Prediction Market Consultant)

– Tony Clare (Head of Strategic Initiatives at Betfair)

– Norris Clark (Vice-President of Sales at NewsFutures)

– Alexander Costakis (Managing Director of Hollywood Stock Exchange)

– Tyler Cowen (Economics Professor at George Mason University)

– Bo Cowgill (Quantitative Marketing Manager at Google)

– Eric Crampton (Senior Lecturer at University of Canterbury)

– Noam Danon (Qmarkets CEO and Founder)

– Pedro Da Cunha (Exago Markets CEO)

– John Delaney (InTrade CEO)

– Juan Manuel Ducler (Founder, BestChartsOnline.com / Trader &amp- Financial Consultant)

– Nigel Eccles (HudDub CEO)

– Leslie Fine (VP of Market Design at Xpree)

– Matthew Fogarty (Prediction Market Consultant – Xpree CEO and Founder)

– Lance Fortnow (Professor of Computer Science at Northwestern University)

– Nick Garner (SEO / PPC / Search Manager at BetFair)

– Cedric Gaspoz (Research and Teaching Assistant at University of Lausanne)

– Michael Giberson (Energy Economist at Texas Tech University)

– Sean Glass (Founder, Chairman, Chief Strategy Officer at Pikum Holdings)

– Andrew Goldberg (Intern at Media Law Resource Center)

– Robin Hanson (Professor of Economics at George Mason University)

– Chris Hibbert (Software Architect, Project Lead at Zocalo)

– Donna Hoffman (Professor and Co-Director, Sloan Center for Internet Retailing)

– Panagiotis Ipeirotis (Assistant Professor at New York University)

– Max Keiser (Entrepreneur, Journalist, Co-Founder of the Hollywood Stock Exchange)

– Alex Kirtland (User Experience Consultant)

– Ken Kittlitz (Software Architect, Foresight Exchange, Consensus Point)

– Greg Knaddison (Developer and Sys Admin for PingVision)

– Nathan Kontny (Inkling Markets CTO)

– Kriss Monaco (Director of New Product Development at International Securities Exchange)

– Dean LeBaron (Independent Investment Management Professional)

– Heidi Levin (Director of Business Development at Inkling Markets)

– Mike Linksvayer (Vice-President of Creative Commons)

– Rory Mackay (PredictionsMarkets.com Co-Founder and Owner)

– Chris. F. Masse (Founder and President of Midas Oracle)

– Tracy Mullen (Penn State Professor of Information Technology)

– Jesper Muller-Krogstrup (Managing Director of Nosco)

– Sean Park (Founding Partner at Sixth Paradigm)

– David Pennock (Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo!)

– Daniel Reeves (Yahoo! Research Scientist)

– Michael Robb (Communications &amp- PR Executive at BetFair)

– Steve Roman (Financial Analyst at FXCM)

– Mark Rose (Ex-HedgeStreet Director of Product Development)

– Jason Ruspini (Financial Research Analyst, Vice President at Conquest Capital Group)

– Mike Sankowski (Product Development and Market Operations Manager at US Futures Exchange)

– Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures CEO and Co-Founder)

– Brian Shiau (The Sim Exchange CEO and Founder)

– Adam Siegel (Inkling Markets CEO and Co-Founder)

– Ashish Singal (Capital Markets Professional)

– Erik Snowberg (Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology)

– Brad Stewart (Reality Markets Founder)

– Brent Stinski (Media Predict CEO and Founder)

– Karim Tahawi (MyCurrency Founder)

– Jason Trost (Co-Founder of Smarkets)

– George Tziralis (Doctoral Researcher at National Technical University of Athens, Co-Founder of AskMarkets)

– Robert Wilburn (Rimdex CEO and Founder)

– Gerry Wilson (YooNew CEO and Co-Founder)

– Justin Wolfers (Professor of Business and Public Policy at the University of Pennsylvania)

– Matt Youill (Chief Technologist at Betfair)

– David Yu (BetFair CEO, Former CTO and COO of BetFair)

– Eric Zitzewitz (Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College)

– Plus, many, many more&#8230-

–

Other Prediction Market People At LinkedIn

– Russell Andersson (Chief Operating Officer, Third Ave Beach)

– Adrian Asher (Global Head of Security at BetFair)

– Henry Berg (Group Manager on Information Markets at Microsoft)

– Matt Carter (Director of the Advanced Technology Group at BetFair)

– Jonathan Cumberlege (Former Director of Registrations &amp- Payments at BetFair)

– Gerard Cunningham (President at BetFair USA)

– Mark Davies (Managing Director of Corporate Affairs of BetFair)

– Mike Dooley (Vice-President of Engineering at NewsFutures)

– Sean Dunbar (Former Head of Technology at Hollywood Stock Exchange)

– Mathias Entenmann (Exchange Managing Director of BetFair)

– Brian Galebach (Freelance Computer Programmer and Owner of Probability Sports)

– Carol Gebert (Former Founder at Incentive Markets)

– Christian Hellmers (Director of US Business Development of BetFair)

– David Jack (TradeFair Director)

– Richard Jaycobs (Cantor Exchange Project Leader)

– Nicholas Jenkins – Nick Jenkins – (Owner of Betcha.com)

– Ajit Kambil (Global Director at Deloitte Research)

– Alam Kasenally (Xpree CTO)

– Mike Knesevitch (Ex-InTrade Director)

– Dawn Tevekelian Keller (Director, Services Business Group &amp- Prediction Markets at Best Buy)

– Robin Marks (Head of Media at BetFair)

– Hunter Morris (Co-Founder of Smarkets)

– George Neumann (Professor of Economics And Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences at the University of Iowa, Co-Founder of the Iowa Electronic Markets)

– Scott Page (Professor at University of Michigan)

– Paul Pluschkell (Founder &amp- CEO at Spigit)

– Todd Proebsting (Director at Microsoft, Former Group Manager on Information Markets at Microsoft)

– Linda Rebrovick (Consensus Point CEO)

– Don Reynolds (Site Administrator at NewsFutures)

– Felix Salmon (Financial Journalist at Portfolio)

– Bimal Shah (Product Manager at TradeFair)

– Martin Spann (Professor at the University of Passau)

– Will Speck (Director Business Development &amp- Market Research at Financial Times &amp- FT.com)

– Martin Thompson (Engineering Director at TradeFair)

– Geoffrey Tso (Engineering Manager at Xpree)

– Andrew Twaits (Corporate and Business Affairs Director of BetFair Australia)

– Mark Wood (Head of Programme at TradeFair0

– Plus, many, many more&#8230-

–