Waiting for Barack Obamas choice for VP candidate

Posted on August 22, 2008 by admin

– Lawsuit about the ineligibility of Barack Obama for the US presidency. &#8212- Not a hoax.

– Pranksters are sending false text messages. &#8211- Did Caveat Bettor fall in this trap?

– Texas Rep. Chet Edwards is the surprise just out of the hat.

While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.

Posted on August 22, 2008 by admin

BBC News:

According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.

Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama&#8217-s or John McCain&#8217-s head.

Thank God for the BBC.

Thank God for the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Shame on John Delaney &#8212-over 3 generations of Delaneys.

Other than Tom Snee (the IEM spin doctor), Chris Masse and Justin Wolfers are the only prediction market analysts to have sent out warnings about the VP-candidate prediction markets.

A rapid quizz for the readers of Midas Oracle – and, in particular, Michael Giberson (our chief economist)

Posted on August 22, 2008 by admin

– What was the best prediction market ever?

– What was the worst prediction market ever?

Think about that, and I&#8217-ll give you my answer very soon.

I want you to think hard about it over this week-end.

Eat fish, and drink fruit juices.

PS: I am not talking about a prediction exchange, but about a specific prediction market (i.e., about a specific topic, like whether North Korea will fire a missile, or whatever).

Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. – Might be Evan Bayh.

Posted on August 21, 2008 by admin

Time:

QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?

BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what&#8217-s best for the American people.

I think people will see that I&#8217-m not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I&#8217-m not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.

&#8220-Not about ego&#8221-&#8230- is no good for Joe Biden.

&#8220-Complement&#8221-&#8230-. is no good for Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine.

So, it might be Evan Bayh.

UPDATE: Or Jack Reed.

Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius

Posted on August 21, 2008 by admin

PREDICTION MARKET STARTUP GRABS REKNOWNED RESEARCHER AWAY FROM HP LABS. – TIPPING POINT FOR THE PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY?

Posted on August 21, 2008 by admin

Xpree vs. Inkling Markets

Posted on August 21, 2008 by admin

I am usually very sympathetic to Inkling Markets and Adam Siegel. I think they are the most professional prediction market consultants. However, I am more impressed by the recent Xpree hiring than by the recent Inkling hiring. Leslie Fine is a market design specialist and a fine researcher, who will bring credibility and expertise to Xpree. Very good coup by mister Mat Fogarty. I am very impressed. Wow.

ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hiltons daily dress picks.

Posted on August 20, 2008 by admin

As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don&#8217-t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, or wicked lies in the form of trial balloons. The aims of the political campaigns are to:

creating suspense (sometimes false) so as to generate free publicity-
sending a positive message to the supporters of each VP candidate-
letting the Press do the vetting of the VP candidates-
flattering the political journalists by leaking to them-
sending out false leaks so as to preserve the surprise for the scheduled announcement day-
sometimes, buying time to impose the head of the VP search committee as the most serious VP candidate (remember Dick Cheney in 2000). [Psstt… Funny enough, in the 2008 election, Michael Moore is pulling for Caroline Kennedy. ]

All that means that there are no good primary indicators for the prediction markets on the Democratic and Republican VP-candidate selections.

I want to offer 6 remarks:

Not all prediction markets are created equal. Some have good primary indicators (e.g., the prediction markets on the presidential elections, thanks to polls), while some other prediction markets have unreliable primary indicators (e.g., the prediction markets on who will be on the ticket).
The prediction exchange executives (like InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney) will never tell you that, because their job is to sell their wares, of course.
The public needs prediction market analysts, who can judge the quality of the primary indicators of one particular prediction market, so as to separate the grains from the shaft &#8212-reliable prediction markets from unreliable prediction markets. (A prediction market analyst has also other functions, which I will blog about later on.)
A prediction market analyst should have a dual competency &#8212-in a vertical (in our example, US politics), and in prediction markets.
The expertise in the vertical (here, politics) should be a major, and the expertise in prediction markets should be a minor. Take a look at these 2 mainstream media news stories: the one written Jack Shafer in Slate (which I linked to at the top of this post), and the one written by Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal. Obviously, the one that shows the most mastering is the one written by Jack Shafer, an American professional journalist who follows US politics for a living.
The consequence of that for prediction market journalism is that the writer should be an expert in a vertical, and the editor should be an expert in prediction markets &#8212-and not the other way around.