This came about in a conversation involving an esteemed personage:
What is the proper use of fibonacci numbers in trading?
To sell books.
And to generate commissions of course.
A technical analysis joke
2
Yearly Archives: 2007
UKs super casino: Manchester rejoices; Blackpool is disapointed.
“-Blackpool had the best case, proved it and still lost”- is a sentiment shared by a town in shock at the decision to award the lucrative prize to Manchester. Our North West neighbours were, said the CAP, the best bet on all counts –- for helping assist regeneration of a poor district and as the social impact test bed for Las Vegas-style glitz and gambling. Not so, say MPs, council leaders and Gazette readers who today made an 11th hour appeal to Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell to think again ahead of the crucial Parliamentary vote on the matter.
The City of Paris, too, had the best case in bidding for hosting the 2012 Olympics —-it lost to London. The error (or “-bias”-?) is to think that small, secretive committees only judge on merits.
Previous: 17 New British Casinos –- BetFair predicted Blackpool (62,5%).
–->- Beware event derivatives whose expiry is based on the decision of a group of people…- you know close to nothing about. (((Psstt…- I will talk to you, later on, about…- event derivatives whose expiry is based on the decision of a group of people…- you know everything about. Ha! ha! ha! I’-m serious. It’-s the high end of my concept of X Groups.)))
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Midas Oracle: The Architecture For Prediction Markets, With Style
An invitation to join the simExchange beta
The simExchange, a virtual video game stock exchange, is a new project to help gamers learn about upcoming video games and predict how well they will sell. Countless new games are on the horizon all the time and it is too time consuming to read up on all of them. The simExchange applies the Wisdom of the Crowds concept to upcoming video games. You can quickly identify the most anticipated upcoming games by simply checking out the most valued game stocks or the most traded game stocks.
Users submit the games they want to trade. Users also submit articles, images, and videos about the games. The community votes through a unique “content bidding system” to measure the value of submitted content to the community. This makes it easier for users to learn about games by quickly seeing the most valuable content about the game available and allows traders to more easily value the game stocks up for trading.
The simExchange is also a great opportunity to learn about the stock market by trading stocks that gamers care about. Unlike many prediction markets, the simExchange follows real market mechanics, such as a double call auction order system. The simExchange allows players to actually short stocks.
Games Stocks:
– The stock price forecasts the game’s lifetime worldwide unit sales. 1 DKP corresponds to 10,000 copies sold.
– Game stocks are perpetual and are structured similar to real stocks.
– Users can submit the games they want listed on the simExchange for trading. Users bid on games to indicate demand for that game’s listing.
– Read more about the stock structure here.
Trading Features:
– A virtual stock market that follows real stock market mechanics such as a double call auction order book (CDA form prediction market).
– Users can place limit orders and short stocks
– Players learn to manage margin. Will receive margin calls and forced liquidation if leveraged position moves against them.
– Liquidity provided by automated and human market makers.
User Interface:
– AJAX interface enables user to dynamically pull up a stock’s order book by clicking on a stock. No need to enter stock prices.
– Option for basic trading (market orders with easy to understand bid and ask) or advanced trading featuring limit orders with Level II Order Book.
– Level II Order Book auto-updates best bids and asks orders.
– Portfolio, Quick Portfolio, and Order Status pages auto-update balance, margin, and positions.
– Find stocks by browsing genre or platform or searching title or summary content
– AJAX forms dynamically appear and change content
Content System:
– All game stocks are accompanied by a succinct but comprehensive summary so that traders do not need to leave the site to learn about the underlying game.
– Extensive resources provided by articles, images, and videos submitted by the community give traders quick access to the news that can move the stock.
– The community bids on content using the simExchange Content Bidding System to determine the value of the content to the community.
– The news aggregator is part of the overall simExchange game- players earn DKP from submitting valuable content and posting intelligent comments.
The simExchange is currently in public beta and I welcome anyone to join and share feedback.
If you would like to learn about the development of the simExchange, you can follow everything from the beginning by reading the simExchange Official Blog. The first post discussing how I came up with the idea starts here. We are also currently exploring ways to provide the simExchange technology to third-parties. You can always contact us through the form in the simExchange’-s Help section.
17 New British Casinos
Via Betting Market, the U.K. government:
After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the area in which a regional casino should be licensed is the City of Manchester.
After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which large casinos should be licensed are: Great Yarmouth– Kingston-upon-Hull– Leeds– Middlesbrough– Milton Keynes– Newham– Solihull and Southampton.
After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which small casinos should be licensed are: Bath [*] and North East Somerset– Dumfries and Galloway– East Lindsey– Luton– Scarborough– Swansea– Torbay and Wolverhampton.
[*] I love the City of Bath. It’-s beautiful. There’-s a good university, and there are Roman remains —-the Roman “-baths”– naturally warm waters (hot springs). Plus, it’-s not far away from Stonehenge. I recommend it.
—-
OK, so the prediction market news of the day is that the super casino license (or “-licence”-, as they say) is granted to Manchester —-while BetFair predicted Blackpool (62,5%). Let’-s remember that Paris was the favorite to be the host city of the 2012 Olympics (it will be London):
—-
TAKEAWAY: It’-s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee —-whether it’-s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.’-s Casino Advisory Panel).
What are futures?
A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller. It obligates the buyer to take possession of a specified amount of a given commodity or financial instrument and to do so by a given date. Likewise, it obligates the seller to deliver (sell) a specified amount of a given commodity or financial instrument by a given date. The specified date is the expiration date of the futures contract. Futures contracts lock in current prices, that is, the prevailing prices at the time the contracts were bought or sold. This protects both the buyer and seller against the risk of price change between the moment of the contract transaction and the time of delivery (the expiration date). Futures contracts can be bought or sold at any time by anyone and they can change hands any number of times before expiration.
Related to the expiration date is the first notice date. This is the date after which the contract holder may be required to take possession (if long) or to deliver (if short) the specified quantity of the underlying commodity. After first notice date, those who are long futures contracts can demand delivery and those who are short may be required to deliver. Futures speculators who want to maintain a position past first notice date “-roll over”- their contracts to others that have later expiration dates.
Futures contracts may be used in several ways. For example, producers of commodities use them to hedge risks. A grain producer may have 10,000 bushels of corn that will be ready on a given date, and he or she wants to lock in specific sales price on that date. Locking in the price with a futures contract avoids the risk of vagaries in the corn market. Consequently, the use of futures allows the producer to budget and plan, knowing what price to expect on delivery. The way the producer ensures the price is by selling futures contracts. The buyer of futures contract is then obligated to take delivery of the corn on a given date, at the specified price.
For the speculator [or] day trader, futures contracts are used purely as trading instruments. They enable profits to be made from correctly anticipated price changes. For example, a trader expecting stocks to rise can profit from the anticipated move by going long an S&-P 500 or E-Mini contract. To avoid acquiring the commodity and then having to turn around and sell it, speculators generally do not hold futures contracts past expiration or first notice date.
Today, futures trading on modern exchanges is highly standardized. Future contracts have fixed expiration dates and contract sizes, and each contract is identified by a unique symbol. Specifying a futures contract, such as when requesting a quote or placing an order, requires knowledge of the month in which the contract terminates or expires, and the root symbol used to identify the contract series.
Tony Reed
Cross-posted from “-What are futures?“-. Please, visit Tony Reed’-s home page, Futures Trading &- Futures Market, for more information.