Tag Archives: S&P 500

Ben Shannon on his misguided “SELL” stock market call delivered just before the stock market rally

Posted on August 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Ben Shannon on his “SELL” market call Previously: Wiser Than The Stock Market — NOT UPDATE: Andrew Page + Henry Blodget

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged Ben Shannon, Finance, Financial Markets, forecasting, forecasting the future, Jesse Livermore, S&P 500, speculating, stock market, stock markets, stocks, the future, Wiser Than The Crowd | 2 Comments

Wiser Than The Stock Market — NOT

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Ben Shannon (alias “Jesse Livermore”, who blogs at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) claims on his blog to have an uncanny ability at forecasting the future and profiting from it, whether it is speculating on InTrade’s prediction markets or on the … Continue reading →

Correlation is not causation, you said?

Posted on October 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, John McCain, prediction markets, S&P 500, stock markets | 1 Comment

Take the Barack Obama event derivative at InTrade, invert the graph, and then sur-impose the S&P 500 on it.

Posted on October 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via InstaPundit Via Rory Makay of JusTrade -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presdiential elections, Barack Obama, financial crisis, Financial Markets, InTrade, prediction markets, S&P 500, stock market | Leave a comment

â€œOver a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.â€

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

THE ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET. — “Both parties of this bet have agreed upon an adjudication methodology that has been approved by Long Bets. They have asked that it be kept confidential.” -

Posted in Betting, Finance | Tagged Finance, hedge funds, Long bets, Protege Partners, S&P, S&P 500, USD, Warren Buffett | 4 Comments

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Jay Graziani

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bear Sterns, BetFair, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, decision-making tool, Dublin, economist, Enron, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, federal law, Internet casinos, Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, internet gambling laws, InTrade, Iowa, Iraq, Jay Graziani, Justin Wolfers, laws, Major, MATCHBOOK, Middle East, National Basketball Association, NBA, oil, oil crisis, online gamblers, online prediction markets, Pennsylvania, Pentagon, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, profit-making tools, real-money prediction exchanges, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, S&P 500, sports betting, Stanford, the Science, The University of Iowa, the University of Pennsylvania, TradeSports, United States, United States Congress, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, Wager, Wharton School, Yale | 1 Comment

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

Posted on May 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, andâ€”at timesâ€”the public … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged 9/11 Commission, Airline, airline index, Al Qaeda, Allen M. Poteshman, Bin Laden, calls, derivatives, Did Bin Laden, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, insider trading, insiders, options, Policy Analysis Market, put options, puts, S&P 500, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Standard and Poor's airline, stocks, terrorism, terrorists, UAL, United States, US airlines, World Trade Center | 3 Comments

Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange?

Posted on October 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Via Max Keiser, Trader Daily ($$$): Hollywood Ending – Trader Daily – October 4, 2007 – by Robert LaFranco A decade ago, a Wall Street trader and an L.A. dealmaker united to remake the movie industry in the image of … Continue reading →

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, History, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Academy Award, advertising vehicle, Alec Baldwin, Andrew Merkatz, Andy Kaplan, Andy Wing, Barney, betting exchanges, betting markets, Cambridge Technology Ventures, Cantor, Cantor Exchange, Cantor spokesman, CEO, Citigroup, consumer portal, CountryRoad Capital, Dallas Mavericks, Eddie Murphy, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, exchange software, executive, former finance whiz kids, former stockbroker, Harvard Business School, Herb Ritts Gallery, Hollywood Stock Exchange, investment banker, Judd Apatow, Keystone Venture Capital, L.A., Lions Gate, London, Los Angeles, Mark Cuban, MarketCast, Max Keiser, media projects, merchant banking, Michael Burns, Michael Milken, Moby, movie business, movies, NBC, news network, Nielsen National Research Group, online futures markets, online prediction market, online sideshow, Online Testing Exchange, OSCAR, Paris, Paul Galbraith, Predict-It CEO, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, predictive products, prime real estate, Prudential Securities, public relations, Robert Evans, Robert LaFranco, Ron Jeremy, S&P 500, Scandinavian Broadcast Service, Sony, spokesman, sports-spread betting program, stockbroker, studio accounting practices, Sundance Film Festival, television executive, The Howard Stern Show, Tinseltown, Todd Wagner, top television executive, Trader, United Kingdom, United States, USD, VIP lounge of Hollywood, virtual banking system, Virtual Specialist, Wall Street, Wall Street trader, web traffic | 9 Comments

Unusual configuration of open interest in the S&P 500 Index’s September options

Posted on August 30, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Nobody manages to understand why. – (The Street .com – 4 pages) UPDATE: Answer.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged S&P 500 | Leave a comment