Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Slate

Did Slate investigate the InTrade account of Ben Shannon (alias “Jesse Livermore”, who blogs at “Wiser Than The Crowd”)?

Here is the original request from Slate:
Slate magazine looking for Intrade junkies
Hi there Intraders,
I’m working on a story for Slate about the people who drive prediction markets –especially those who are very good at it. I’m interested in how you got into the game, how to be successful, and what you get out of it, [...]

Slate ditch the prediction markets for the polls.

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Slate used to promote the “why vote when you can bet” webspot at the top of its frontpage during the primaries. Now, it promotes a polls tracker for the rest of the 2008 US presidential elections.
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The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.

Slate’s Jack Shafer (my favorite libertarian journalist –both small “L” and capitalized “L”):
[...] visiting the woman who recently gave birth to the out-of-wedlock child of a married campaign aide is completely OK. But meeting her at a Beverly Hills hotel in the early hours of the morning and running from tabloid reporters when approached and [...]

The John Edwards Non-Affair

Interesting experiment in blog journalism.
Who do you trust? The Slate blogger or that blogger? I’m truly puzzled.
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Google News
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UPDATE
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You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…

The provocative title of this post ( ) refers to the fact that Internet citizens don’t read on the Web.
They scan.
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I’ve just read a Slate article that recaps Jakob Nielsen’s teachings —I highly recommend it to you.
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Oh, Jesus: The editor of The Big Money (a business site that WashPo’s Slate will launch soon) misunderstands the prediction markets.

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His anti-scientific, simplistic arguments:

They’re too small.
The stakes are too low.
They’re too slow to react to events.

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He reaches the wrong conclusion:
To get the maximum use out of them, we must—as with political polls—learn to read them in a discriminating, critical fashion.
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So, now we know: We will stay away from The Big Money.
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Since Chris must sleep at some time (I think)…

… I’ll alert you to a developing story. [Slate's Daniel Gross: Why were the political futures markets so wrong about Obama and Clinton?]
Thanks to a friend.
~alex

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