Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: risks

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong.

Joe says that there can’t be hedging in politics. Wrong. You can hedge your political ads on InTrade.
Joe says that [...]

Rejection of the patent claims involving a method of hedging risks in commodities trading

Wikipedia:
The applicants (Bernard L. Bilski and Rand Warsaw) filed a patent application (on 10 April 1997) for a method of hedging risks in commodities trading. Such patent claims are often termed business method claims. [...] Bilski’s method claim was patent-ineligible because it did not “transform any article to a different state or thing.” [...]
It has [...]

How Paul Volcker will save the world

Paul Volcker:
The specific points at issue are ownership or sponsorship of hedge funds and private equity funds, and proprietary trading — that is, placing bank capital at risk in the search of speculative profit rather than in response to customer needs. Those activities are actively engaged in by only a handful of American mega-commercial banks, [...]

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission will have authority to decide what derivatives must be centrally cleared rather than letting private parties make the call.

“Central clearing interposes a regulated clearinghouse between the original counterparties in a derivatives transaction and so creates an opportunity to make dealing more transparent.”
CNBC video

Explosive Risk

[(Leverage + Short Term Funding)*Opaqueness]^Hubris = Explosive Risk

Why you should take risks — trading on prediction markets… or founding a prediction market startup

Taking Risks In Business:

Don’t shoot the speculators. They predict prices, not set them.

L. Gordon Crovitz in the Wall Street Journal:
More-detailed reporting on who has which kinds of positions in oil would make the market more understandable. It would show that so-called financial speculators are trying to predict price movements, but also trying to hedge risk. Likewise, commercial traders that take delivery of oil are hedging risks, while [...]

Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks.

IT Business Edge – (I love the name of this magazine):
Seeking opinions from a diverse group of employees rather than just the usual decision-makers helps organizations mitigate risk, says Adam Siegel, co-founder and CEO of Inkling, Inc., a provider of prediction market software. “You want as much information as possible upfront so you can react [...]

Business Risks & Prediction Markets

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