In the universe of Steve Jobs, personal vision trumps the wisdom of the crowd. Hes ready when he thinks were ready.

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New York Times:

Great products, according to Mr. Jobs, are triumphs of “taste.” And taste, he explains, is a byproduct of study, observation and being steeped in the culture of the past and present, of “trying to expose yourself to the best things humans have done and then bring those things into what you are doing.”

His is not a product-design philosophy steered by committee or determined by market research. The Jobs formula, say colleagues, relies heavily on tenacity, patience, belief and instinct. He gets deeply involved in hardware and software design choices, which await his personal nod or veto.

I am filing this post in the “-INDIVIDUAL INTELLIGENCE –- ANTI CONSENSUS”- category (opposing the “-COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE –- WISDOM OF CROWDS”- category) —-following a remark I made privately to David Pennock, Mike Giberson and Mike Linksvayer.

New Product Innovation: Enterprise Prediction Markets Can Help.

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Via the New York-based Yahoo! Research scientist who was video-interviewed by the New York Post, the other day- Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen:

New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets
Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen
50/1 (Fall 2007): 144-158

New product innovation is a strategic business activity that involves significant financial resources and managerial attention. Most new product launches fail because existing methods are unable to forecast their commercial successes accurately. In this article, we describe a market-based method to address this gap. This method capitalizes on the power of the “wisdom of crowds” by allowing people to interact in organized markets governed by well-defined rules. The working of these markets relies on five scientific principles referred to as I4C (pronounced as “I foresee”). These markets motivate people to share information freely through a price discovery process. Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation. We demonstrate the power of the markets with real application examples from a wide variety of industries.

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More:

The principles are incentive, indicator, improvement, independence, and crowd.

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New Product Innovation: NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, Consensus Point and Xpree can help.

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New Product Innovation: Enterprise Prediction Markets Can Help.

No Gravatar

Via the New York-based Yahoo! Research scientist who was video-interviewed by the New York Post, the other day- Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen:

New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets
Teck-Hua Ho &amp- Kay-Yut Chen
50/1 (Fall 2007): 144-158

New product innovation is a strategic business activity that involves significant financial resources and managerial attention. Most new product launches fail because existing methods are unable to forecast their commercial successes accurately. In this article, we describe a market-based method to address this gap. This method capitalizes on the power of the “wisdom of crowds” by allowing people to interact in organized markets governed by well-defined rules. The working of these markets relies on five scientific principles referred to as I4C (pronounced as “I foresee”). These markets motivate people to share information freely through a price discovery process. Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation. We demonstrate the power of the markets with real application examples from a wide variety of industries.

-

More:

The principles are incentive, indicator, improvement, independence, and crowd.

-

New Product Innovation: NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, Consensus Point and Xpree can help.

-