Tag Archives: primary indicators
Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea.
TradeFair, soon.
Not a bad idea, but not the best idea they could have.
The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators.
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Enterprise Prediction Markets = Voodoo Forecasting?
Of course, not.
But if a prediction market is an information aggregation mechanism, should you ask just any question before ever checking that there is indeed something to aggregate? For instance, can a prediction market foretell whether your competitor’s molecule will be approved by the FDA? I would say that it can’t in case your own [...]
What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common?
They were both lambasted by a famous, controversial and bombastic prediction market blogger… and they both failed in spectacular fashion.
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Here’s what I wrote in October 2008:
InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably.
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The InTrade prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index [...]
How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power
Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”.
In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In a field of about four or [...]
InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably. Here’s why. You heard it here first.
Those brand-new InTrade prediction markets will be based on the Mei Moses All Art Index.
Financial Times
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At first glance, that looks like a very bad idea. Indeed, I don’t see what primary indicators will be used by the event derivative traders to inform their betting decisions.
Is it another bad move from Chad Rigetti?
P.S.: I wish [...]
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