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- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Tag Archives: primary indicators
Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea.
TradeFair, soon. Not a bad idea, but not the best idea they could have. The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators. -
Enterprise Prediction Markets = Voodoo Forecasting?
Of course, not. But if a prediction market is an information aggregation mechanism, should you ask just any question before ever checking that there is indeed something to aggregate? For instance, can a prediction market foretell whether your competitor’s molecule … Continue reading
What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common?
They were both lambasted by a famous, controversial and bombastic prediction market blogger… and they both failed in spectacular fashion. – Here’s what I wrote in October 2008: InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged BetFair, betting markets, climate change, event derivative markets, global warming, InTrade, liquidity, Mei Moses Fine Art Index, prediction markets, primary indicators
18 Comments
How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power
Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”. In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, Joe Biden, prediction markets, primary indicators, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets
5 Comments
InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably. Here’s why. You heard it here first.
Those brand-new InTrade prediction markets will be based on the Mei Moses All Art Index. Financial Times – - At first glance, that looks like a very bad idea. Indeed, I don’t see what primary indicators will be used by … Continue reading