Tag Archives: prediction exchanges

BetFair news — [LINKS]

- BetFair’s LMAX is a failure. – BetFair moves to Gibraltar. – CEO’s health.

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PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]

http://predictalot.yahoo.com/ Predictalot on FaceBook. David Pennock: I believe it’s the largest prediction market created by number of outcomes (9.2 quintillion). We’re approximating a #P-hard problem to get the odds. More here. I believe v0.3 is faster and easier to use … Continue reading

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Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading

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BetFair’s David Yu speaks. – [VIDEO]

Download his post to watch the embedded video if your feed reader does not show it to you.

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Predict X = Play-money prediction markets

Predict X http://www.predictx.org/ FAQ Best wishes to Sebastian and Alexander.

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Jason Trost on BetFair: They haven’t innovated much, and they’re too pricey.

Jason Trost: Slow innovation: Aside from a few cosmetic tweaks, reliability improvements and the Starting Price feature, Betfair hasn’t innovated much over the last few years. For a company that boasts several hundred developers, it should be able to release … Continue reading

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Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.

Via Mike Giberson, Hollywood tries to block the Cantor Exchange. Previously.

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Prediction Markets APIs

Are our betting exchanges’ APIs programmable? Fred Wilson insists on read/write APIs (#5). Any comments?

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Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says: But buyers beware: if “Avatar” is any indication, the public isn’t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users … Continue reading

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Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)

Predictalot David Pennock explains Predictalot.

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