Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Politics

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Nate Silver:
I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had [...]

When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.

ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT… of Greece

Midas Oracle started the thing, but now one Greek blogger is carrying the project officially. A petition is forming on the Internet to draft Max Keiser into Greek politics. 23,000 views, so far —and it’s just a start.

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.

See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser.

ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’s memories?
Do you sense that the [...]

Max Keiser claims to have predicted the Lehman Brothers creative accounting thing.

MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT…!!!…

PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed.

P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just [...]

Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. –> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.

So much for the “insider trading” who signaled the certainty of the adoption of the new health care reform bill. Joe Weisenthal swallowed InTrade CEO’s marketing bait.

More on Memeorandum.
Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

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