Emmanuel Todd predicted the Arab Spring by looking at demo data. – [VIDEO IN FRENCH]

Emmanuel Tood @ Wikipedia –- Tyler Cowen has a book review.

Sorry, it is only in French, but I hope it gets translated on the Web in English, sometime soon.


Emmanuel Todd : le rendez-vous des civilisations…- par Ash67


Emmanuel Todd : le rendez-vous des civilisations…- par Ash67


Emmanuel Todd : le rendez-vous des civilisations…- par Ash67


Emmanuel Todd : le rendez-vous des civilisations…- par Ash67


Emmanuel Todd : le rendez-vous des civilisations…- par Ash67

InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahns life. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

InTrade:

New Prediction Market: Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Tuesday, May 17, 2011

On May 16th 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared in New York City Criminal Court and was charged with two counts of a criminal sexual act in the first degree , first-degree attempted rape, first-degree sexual abuse, second-degree unlawful imprisonment, forcible touching, and third-degree sexual abuse. These seven charges are detailed in the criminal court complaint found HERE.

Intrade has opened a market for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be found guilty of, or plead guilty to, at least one of the charges laid against him. This market can be found under Legal &gt- D. Strauss Kahn.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if:

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found guilty of at least one of the seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
–- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to at least one of the seven counts

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if (including, but not limited to):

- Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found not guilty of all seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
– All counts are dropped
The case is dismissed
- A mistrial is declared (for all counts)
- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to lesser charges only as part of a plea agreement (please note that if Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to any of the original charges as part of plea agreement the contract will expire at 100)

This market covers only the charges covered in the complaint. Any other criminal or civil cases will not be considered when expiring this market.

The contracts will be paused if possible when a verdict is about to be announced and will be expired as soon as that decision is made public.

The end date on the contract is for indication purposes only. This date may be extended if necessary.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account –- Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

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Video link.


Tristane Banon et AgoraVox: retour sur une…- par AgoraVox

The right way to deal with invaders – [AUSSIE RULES]

- You’-re not welcome! Australian ships boatload of asylum seekers to Malaysia in tough new immigration measure.

- Kicked Out: Australian ministers have swapped a boatload of asylum seekers for refugees after making a deal with the Malaysian government.

Chris Bowen:

British electors dont want to change their electoral system. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum):

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

Here’-s BetFair’-s prediction market on the YES side:

Tipped by Mike Robb.

Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver

- Andrew Gelman nailed it:

In summary, “-momentum”- can exist, but the places where you’-ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions. The mere information that a race has a 5-point swing is not enough to predict a future shift in that direction. As Nate emphasizes, such a prediction is only appropriate in the context of real-world information, hypotheses of “-factors above and beyond the direction in which the polls have moved in the past.”-

- As an appendix, and on another topic, compare Justin Wolfers’-s naive view on genders with Steve Blank’-s informed viewpoint.

Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger

His post, “-The Myth of the Social Security Shortfall”-, here, but if you don’-t want to defer thinking, read Mish Shedlock on pension underfunding instead. Yes, taxes will have to go up, but it’-s not as though sunsetting the Bush cuts and tacking on a couple percent here or there will stem the entitlement spiral, of which social security is a single piece. Thoma is quoting Michael Hiltzik, whose message, when you strip away the authoritative tone is basically, “-don’-t worry so much, it’-s in the future and stuff.”- That strategy hasn’-t worked out so far.

Deferral, abetted by private and public conflicts of interest, is the essence of the problem and is at the root of both the corporate and sovereign credit crises. Now, it’-s one thing when you have an impaired balance sheet propped up by good cash flow, but there are reasons to believe that prospective growth and public income will also be lacking relative to the 20th century. These reasons of course are swept under the rug by at least one liberal economist. Paul Krugman chides someone for rambling on about demographics one day, and tells us we are turning Japanese the next. Why are we turning Japanese? Krugman sees this, but thinks we must defer that issue to deal with unemployment and deflation. To what extent, however, are unemployment, deflation, and the series of booms and busts over the last 30 years symptoms of demographics? If that’-s the case, if pension rate of return assumptions are off for this or other reasons, things could get late early.

Anyway, to paraphrase Jon Stewart, this isn’-t a game. Try to keep “-garbage words”- out of your titles if you aren’-t going to have any real discussion. If everything is quoted, the quotes lose their meaning and everything is implicitly endorsed.