Tag Archives: Michigan

All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment

NewsFutures’ prediction market webpages aren’t. The “Michigan Florida NewsFutures” query should have landed me on their prediction market webpage about whether “some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.“

-
Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain webpages about expired contracts:

Actually, the “market specified” did exist —but Emile and his team decided that old [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Internet Usability | Also tagged Democratic convention, Democratic delegates, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Florida, Google Search, Google Web Search, HubDub, Intenet usability, NewsFutures, Politics, prediction markets, Search Engine Optimization, Search Engines, SEO, US politics

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2008 — 3 Comments

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
-

Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 22, 2008 — 1 Comment

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.
So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote — and yours [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged 2008 Pennsylvania primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Catholic Church, Democratic, Democratic candidate, democrats, Hamas, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Los Angeles Times, meta forecasting tools, Michael Moore, NewsFutures, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Stephen Colbert, Ted Kennedy, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 27, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets), the Scientific American magazine on prediction markets –”When Markets Beat the Polls”.
Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file.
Abstract:
When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s)
In late March 1988 three [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged accuracy, American Magazine, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gary Stix, George H. W. Bush, IEM, Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa Electronic Markets, Jesse Jackson, Michael Dukakis, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, the Scientific American, The University of Iowa, Xpree

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 21, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Abstract:
When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s)
In late March 1988 three economists from the University of Iowa were nursing beers at a local hangout in Iowa City, when conversation turned to the news of the day. Jesse Jackson had captured 55 percent of the votes in the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged accuracy, American Magazine, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gary Stix, George H. W. Bush, IEM, Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa Electronic Markets, Jesse Jackson, Michael Dukakis, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, The University of Iowa

Journalism Failures — Big Time

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 27, 2008 — 9 Comments

—
- In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “most innovative company”.
- In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.
- In January 2008, the “BetFair [...]

Posted in Ethics, Finance, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged Enron, errors, failures, Fortune, Francis Galton, James Surowiecki, Jerome Kerviel, journalim, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Marc Andreessen, mistakes, Open Media, prediction markets, risk, Risk magazine, Robin Hanson, Societe Generale, USD

Chart Highlighting = Prediction Market Chart + Imaging Software

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 24, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Take this chart (used by Justin Wolfers in the WSJ). Which software package should you use to color parts of this chart (e.g., pre-Iowa vs. post-Iowa), and insert impacting news markers (e.g., the Michigan race)? Nigel Eccles probably knows but won’t tell.
In other words, how could you make Justin Wolfers’ prediction market analysis [...]

Posted in Information Technology, Internet Usability | Also tagged Alex Kirtland, charts, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Nigel Eccles, prediction markets, software package

No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 24, 2008 — Leave a Comment

I think that’s the takeaway from the BetFair blog fiasco.
My questions are still unanswered this morning. What data was used to concoct that dithyrambic write-up about the predictive power of the “betting markets” on the 2008 US primaries and caucuses (and in particular the Michigan race)? BetFair? If so, please, send me the expired charts. [...]

Posted in Ethics, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged BetFair, BetFair blog fiasco, betting markets, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HammerSmith, Nottingham, prediction markets, United States

Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 23, 2008 — 3 Comments

Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco
—
I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now:
Republican nomination – The race so far
I’ll have some comments, below the chart, but first a technical note. The new chart posted is a [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged ABC, accuracy, BetFair, BetFair blog, betting markets, blog editor, BMP, David Jack, Editor, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, furious Betair blog writer, governor, Internet connection, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mark Davies, McCain, Michel Robb, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Niall O'Connor, Niall Or'Connor, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Marks, Tony Clare, web publisher, web publishing, writer

Tag Archives: Michigan

All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Journalism Failures — Big Time

Chart Highlighting = Prediction Market Chart + Imaging Software

No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).

Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Search

Search

In / Out

Recent Comments

Post Categories

Tag Archives: Michigan

Search

Search

In / Out

Recent Comments

Post Tags

Post Categories