Tag Archives: Michigan
All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.
NewsFutures’ prediction market webpages aren’t. The “Michigan Florida NewsFutures” query should have landed me on their prediction market webpage about whether “some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.“
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Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain webpages about expired contracts:
Actually, the “market specified” did exist —but Emile and his team decided that old [...]
The best researchers on prediction markets
CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]
Journalism Failures — Big Time
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- In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “most innovative company”.
- In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.
- In January 2008, the “BetFair [...]
Chart Highlighting = Prediction Market Chart + Imaging Software
Take this chart (used by Justin Wolfers in the WSJ). Which software package should you use to color parts of this chart (e.g., pre-Iowa vs. post-Iowa), and insert impacting news markers (e.g., the Michigan race)? Nigel Eccles probably knows but won’t tell.
In other words, how could you make Justin Wolfers’ prediction market analysis [...]
No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).
I think that’s the takeaway from the BetFair blog fiasco.
My questions are still unanswered this morning. What data was used to concoct that dithyrambic write-up about the predictive power of the “betting markets” on the 2008 US primaries and caucuses (and in particular the Michigan race)? BetFair? If so, please, send me the expired charts. [...]
Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??
Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco
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I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now:
Republican nomination – The race so far
I’ll have some comments, below the chart, but first a technical note. The new chart posted is a [...]
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