Tag Archives: Michigan

All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.

NewsFutures’ prediction market webpages aren’t. The “Michigan Florida NewsFutures” query should have landed me on their prediction market webpage about whether “some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.“ – Alas, NewsFutures does not maintain … Continue reading

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What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: “Concept Release … Continue reading

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted. So, if you live in … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets), the Scientific American magazine on prediction markets –”When Markets Beat the Polls”. Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. Abstract: When … Continue reading

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When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Abstract: When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s) In late March 1988 three economists from the University of Iowa were nursing beers at a local hangout in Iowa City, when conversation turned … Continue reading

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Journalism Failures — Big Time

— – In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “most innovative company”. – In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made … Continue reading

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Chart Highlighting = Prediction Market Chart + Imaging Software

Take this chart (used by Justin Wolfers in the WSJ). Which software package should you use to color parts of this chart (e.g., pre-Iowa vs. post-Iowa), and insert impacting news markers (e.g., the Michigan race)? Nigel Eccles probably knows but … Continue reading

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No more anonymized trading data, please. State your source(s).

I think that’s the takeaway from the BetFair blog fiasco. My questions are still unanswered this morning. What data was used to concoct that dithyrambic write-up about the predictive power of the “betting markets” on the 2008 US primaries and … Continue reading

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Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??

Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco — I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now: Republican nomination – The race so … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments