Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: judge

How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Private Prediction Markets and the Law – (PDF file) – by Tom W. Bell – 2008-05-18
Abstract
This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage those risks. As the label “private” suggests, such markets offer trading not to the public but rather [...]

“I’ll make a $500 donation to the first think thank that makes an interesting, non-bogus use of real-money prediction markets before the end of 2007. I’ll be the judge of bogosity and interestingness, but I can say that a paper about prediction markets counts as uninteresting.”

Mike,
My Good Lord,

Would prediction market journalism (that is, showing to the normal people on the street that prediction markets can help understand better baseball games, or whatever else, on top of being fun and pure) fit your criteria of non-bogosity and interestingness?
-

Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub

This is a follow-up post.

Ken Kittlitz (the head of the Foresight Exchange) to me:
You’re correct, the owner of an FX claim must find a different FX player to act as the judge. This is largely to ensure that at least more than one person thinks the claim is worth having.
With Inkling Markets and HubDub, at [...]

Fallon “Betfair Trial” Collapses

Mr Justice Forbes said today that Australian horse race expert Mr Murrihy in his witness statement had been critical of the riding in 13 of the races and that there was a prima facie case against the jockeys. However, he added:
Remarkably, it was only in cross-examination that the very significant limitations and shortcomings in [...]

UK LAWS: Contempt of court serves the primary function of protecting the integrity of court proceedings.

Via our usual suspect ( ), the Contempt of Court Act 1981:
The Contempt of Court Act 1981 (CCA) was enacted following a decision of ECHR that English contempt law contravened Article 10 of the Convention. It was intended to give greater protection to freedom of speech. [!!!!] The CCA introduces a strict liability [...]

What to think of the newly formed Prediction Market Industry Association?

Niall O’Connor:
From what I have seen to date, the prediction markets lobby merely represents an attempt by a coterie of interest groups to throw of what they see as being the stigma that is associated with the term betting markets. [...]
I think it is fair to say that the matter of what constitutes a prediction [...]

Are Prediction Markets Constitutional?

I think so*, although it could be a matter for states to decide, and not so much the federal government. In that scenario, my thought is that some liberal (in the classic sense) states will allow experimentation with prediction markets, and the informational value (at least over surveys and polls) will eventually sweep the nation. [...]

InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007.

InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007. That’s their main error. Last September, they expired this event derivative on the basis on Larry Craig stating his “intent to resign” —which is different than to announce an upcoming or effective resignation. Larry Craig [...]

The sixth annual European i-Gaming Congress and Expo – at the Barcelona Diagonal Conference Centre

Online Casinos:
[...] The complicated state of US law
The always fascinating subject of American state and federal law as applied to online gambling was next on the agenda, with US gaming lawyer and respected author Martin Owens and the more recent personality arrival Edward Leyden of iMEGA in the hot seats.
Owens ran over the ‘curious’ [...]

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

Scroll down the whole story and judge by yourself, folks.

New York Times:
“As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, [...]

Search

Post Categories