InTrade.Nets free workforce: Calling a spade… a spade.

No Gravatar


Here&#8217-s my answer to Jamie Burrows:

  1. Midas Oracle is an independent publication &#8212-independent from InTrade, and from the other prediction market organizations. We say what we want, here.
  2. As I explained in my comment, there are 2 situations. Case #1 is Inkling Markets and HubDub who ask for volunteers and make it clear that there is no compensation for managing the play-money prediction markets. Case #1 is as clear as spring water. Case #2 is InTrade.Net who ask for volunteers and lure them by floating a &#8220-compensation&#8220- who would be made up of proceeds from Google AdWords/AdSense. The problem is that it is well known that this program brings peanuts for the sites and pages that receive a low web traffic. (And for the high-traffic sites, the revenue collected from ads doesn&#8217-t pay for the time spent on writing for the web publication. See #4.)
  3. Luring small people into thinking they can get &#8220-compensated&#8221- by working for InTrade.Net is thus highly un-ethical &#8212-to say the least.
  4. My dear Jamie, isn&#8217-t the role of independent publications to inform readers about things that big corporations want to hide from the public?

The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach

No Gravatar

These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):


– InTrade .NET &#8230- [*] &#8230- would get the full point if they were to switch the label &#8220-price&#8221- for &#8220-probability&#8221- on their charts.

– NewsFutures &#8230- gets half a point. No mention of &#8220-probabilities&#8221- on their charts.

– Inkling Markets &#8230- gets a quarter of a point.

– TradeFair &#8230- gets an honorable mention, but won&#8217-t show its charts to the non-registered public. :(

[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat&#8217-s tip.

As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of &#8220-do what I say, not what I do&#8220-?&#8230- :-D

APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:

UPDATE: See the comments&#8230-

Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM

No Gravatar

– InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?

– Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: &#8220-2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.&#8221-? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]

– InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.

– Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

– Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

– Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:

When goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of will be retained indefinitely.

How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)

UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money &#8212-while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.

The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism.

No Gravatar

One word: FANTASTIC.

Much improved.

  1. A prediction market blogger can hot-link to the advanced chart.
  2. The advanced chart is the by-default chart &#8212-both prices and volumes are chartered. [Thin volumes don’t appear, though.]
  3. The advanced chart is of the right width &#8212-not too small, not too big.

What remains to be improved:

  1. InTrade should publish chart widgets, so that the weblink to the prediction market webpage is automatically embedded in the chart.
  2. InTrade should publish expired charts of the closed prediction markets. Discussions about accuracy should be supported visually.
  3. InTrade should develop dynamic compound chart widgets with customizable news markers.

I hope we will get improvement on these fronts, soon.