Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: event derivatives

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director.
Required reading for Paul Hewitt.
-

-
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Ron Paul
-

-
ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Nate Silver:
I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if you staffed a whole room full of the smartest vote-counters, modelers and analysts and had [...]

Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says:
But buyers beware: if “Avatar” is any indication, the public isn’t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users had placed real money on the Cantor exchange, they would have taken a serious hit.
http://www.cantorexchange.com/
http://www.hsx.com/

Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. –> September 24, 2010

Full of clichés?

Wall Street 2 @ HSX –> Quite high flying.
The first trailer is hilarious:

About Wall Street 2:

Wall Street 1:

Frank Sinatra, “Fly Me To The Moon”:

Paul Krugman’s excellent definition of the prediction markets

Paul Krugman:
Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well; [...]
E-mail confidentially to tell me the names of the economists who over-hype the prediction markets.

Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).

Vernon Smith (via):
So far as new applications of derivatives markets I think one possibility is we may see more people making, creating derivatives markets, betting markets on policy, public policy outcomes. We’ve already seen that with regard to the Federal Reserve. There is a market now in which people are able to make, take positions [...]

InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.

InTrade — US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09

One InTrade trader, in October 2009:
The four re-definitions that have (so far) been necessary during the 3-month life of the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contracts have brought to my attention that Intrade, to the best of my knowledge, does nothing to notify members that contracts they own have been “clarified”. It may be coincidence that volume [...]

Betting on Copenhagen

Emile Servan-Schreiber comments on a New York Times opinion piece:
The idea that betting could help us gain clarity on some controversial scientific questions has first been proposed by George Mason economics professor Robin Hanson in 1992 in a paper entitled “Could Gambling Save Science” and available online here: http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html
The benefits of creating prediction markets about [...]

Nate Silver: InTrade is dumb. We need serious exchanges for event derivatives.

Nate Silver:
But Intrade, although it’s a product I greatly appreciate, has some problems when it comes to efficiently pricing futures. It’s hard to get money into the site. The exchange falls into a legal gray zone. Transaction fees are comparatively high. And Intrade is stingy about paying interest on deposits, which adds a cost to [...]

Search

Post Categories