Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: event derivative markets

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60.

See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker.

ADDENDUM
More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”…

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people’s memories?
Do you sense that the [...]

CrowdCast + SAP

Business Objects + Prediction Markets

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Why should you try Predictalot?

Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella?
Economists: Play with a true combinatorial prediction market with 9.2 quintillion outcomes and a single pool of liquidity, unlike almost any other of today’s [...]

Predictalot is a combinatorial prediction exchange.

“Predictalot is what is called a combinatorial prediction market.“

Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets

Most published papers on prediction markets (there aren’t many) paint a wildly rosy picture of their accuracy. Perhaps it is because many of these papers are written by researchers having affiliations with prediction market vendors.
Robin Hanson is Chief Scientist at Consensus Point. I like his ideas about combinatorial markets and market scoring rules, but I [...]

Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says:
But buyers beware: if “Avatar” is any indication, the public isn’t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users had placed real money on the Cantor exchange, they would have taken a serious hit.
http://www.cantorexchange.com/
http://www.hsx.com/

Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. –> September 24, 2010

Full of clichés?

Wall Street 2 @ HSX –> Quite high flying.
The first trailer is hilarious:

About Wall Street 2:

Wall Street 1:

Frank Sinatra, “Fly Me To The Moon”:

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