Tag Archives: conditional prediction markets
Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]
Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy:
Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?
Previously.
iPredict’s first conditional prediction markets
Note to our good friend Eric Crampton:
- They are event derivatives, not “stocks”.
I REQUEST A KIWI CORRECTION.
Can a conditional prediction market play chess?
The Hanson–Moldbug debate
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]
If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.
Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets
It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.)
ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and Mencius Moldbug
Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.
Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master.
ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting.
ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has published yet another post pumping up prediction markets for solving every problem on Earth —this time, yelling [...]
Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets
Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] If I interpret correctly what you suggest, this will be equivalent to a “prediction market on a prediction market”, aka “options on markets”: Guess where the price of a long term market will be at set points in the future, before the expiration of the long-term market. InTrade experimented with such contracts last [...]
Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor:
Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in the words of Michael Sandel, “at the end of an era of market triumphalism”.
Robin Hanson:
I deny [...]
Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…
That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, since everybody and his sister are experimenting with prediction markets since 2003.
Find here a good [...]
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