Tag Archives: conditional prediction markets

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Posted on February 11, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy: Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo. Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Who … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision markets, event derivative markets, Foresight 2010, futarchy, governance, governing, governments, Mencius Moldbug, policy decisions, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

iPredict’s first conditional prediction markets

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Note to our good friend Eric Crampton: – They are event derivatives, not “stocks”. I REQUEST A KIWI CORRECTION.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged conditional prediction markets, iPredict, iPredict New Zealand, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Can a conditional prediction market play chess?

Posted on January 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Hanson–Moldbug debate

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged chess, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, Mencius Moldbug, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

Posted on January 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all. – Paul Hewitt: [...] My point is that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, governments, Paul Hewitt, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.

Posted on December 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.) ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, futarchy, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.

Posted on November 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master. ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting. ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Science | Tagged accuracy, climate change, Collective Forecasting, conditional prediction markets, FAIL, global warming, long-term prediction markets, Nate Silver, Our Master Of All Universes, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Science | 7 Comments

Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Ipeirotis: [...] If I interpret correctly what you suggest, this will be equivalent to a â€œprediction market on a prediction marketâ€, aka â€œoptions on marketsâ€: Guess where the price of a long term market will be at set points … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged conditional prediction markets, prediction markets, prediction markets on prediction markets | 2 Comments

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Posted on June 10, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, free markets, free-market philosophy, market fundamentalists, markets, prediction markets, predictive power, public good, Robin Hanson, social utility, society | 5 Comments

Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…

Posted on June 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, Michael Abramowicz, prediction markets, Predictocracy, Robin Hanson | 6 Comments

Jason Ruspini tries to save the Hansonian world.

Posted on November 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged conditional prediction markets, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

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