Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: betting markets

BetFair is going to make money in America…

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

…”even without changes to betting laws.”

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Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2009 — 3 Comments

Robin Hanson’s auto-biography (i.e., how Our Master Of All Universes views HimSelf):

-
Robin Hanson:
Do you find it hard to summarize yourself in a few words? Me too.
But I love the above quote. I have a passion, a sacred quest, to understand everything, and to save the world. I am addicted to “viewquakes”, insights which [...]

Posted in History, People | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chris Pirillo on HubDub’s prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 25, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Chris Pirillo on HubDub’s prediction markets

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Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

Wimbledon Betting Markets

Written by Niall O'Connor on June 23, 2009 — 3 Comments

Whilst Vaughan Williams’ research on the horse race betting market is highly supportive of the notion that transaction costs are a barrier to efficiency, recent research by David Forrest and Ian McHale, lecturers at the University of Salford, has highlighted the fact that despite the presence of low transaction costs in the (traditional fixed odds) [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , ,

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Written by Michael Giberson on June 15, 2009 — 10 Comments

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Information Aggregation, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 15, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] Now, do we need to call them *prediction* markets? I would agree that there is no real reason for that… All markets have information aggregation characteristics and sometimes it is annoying to see how much we reinvent the wheel when studying “prediction” markets, pretending that they are fundamentally new beasts. (The “we” includes [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged ,

Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 12, 2009 — 2 Comments

Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets
They don’t agree, but I don’t care. I am right, and they are wrong.

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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged ,

The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 12, 2009 — 24 Comments

- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt
- Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt
Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).

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Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Information Aggregation | Also tagged , , , , , ,

North American Derivatives Exchange = Nadex = Ex-HedgeStreet

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 11, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Apology to all (and to Chris Hibbert in particular), my link was broken, yesterday.
North American Derivatives Exchange
http://demo.nadex.com/
Thanks to our reader AE for the tip.

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Posted in Exchange Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Also tagged , , , , ,

HedgeStreet becomes Nadex.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 10, 2009 — 1 Comment

North American Derivatives Exchange
Thanks to our reader AE for the tip.

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Posted in Exchange Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Also tagged , , , , ,
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