Tag Archives: Barack Obama

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Posted on May 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Scenarios.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged assassination, Barack Obama, bets, Betting, betting markets, bounce, death, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, killing, Nate Silver, Osama bin Laden, Politics, Prediction Journalism, prediction markets, Predictions, US politics | Leave a comment

InTrade traders are predicting that Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaney on CNBC (January 25, 2011). [Download this post to watch the embedded video, if your feed reader does not show it to you.] Barack Obama re-election prediction market:

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged 2012 political elections, Barack Obama, bets, Betting, betting markets, Democratic party, elections, event derivative markets, event derivatives, political elections, Politics, prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

Barack Obama re-election prediction market – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on December 29, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Today marks the first time that Midas Oracle has aired a political ad.

Posted on June 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Because it is a good one. Midas Oracle endorses no-one. Just publishing newsworthy things —left and right.

Posted in Politics | Tagged Barack Obama, oil spill, Politics, US politics | 1 Comment

InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Slate’s Daniel Gross: Don’t Short Obama Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, March 22, 2010, at 6:05 PM ET It would be very difficult to tote up all the times … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, Daniel Gross, democrats, event derivative markets, health care, health care reform, insider trading, InTrade, manipulation, ObamaCare, prediction markets, republicans, Scott Brown, Slate | 4 Comments

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform

Posted on March 21, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform – NYT – by a former CBO director. Required reading for Paul Hewitt. – - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, health care reform, InTrade, ObamaCare, Politics, prediction markets, US government, US politics | 5 Comments

“In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”

Posted on March 20, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Ron Paul – - ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum, Politico and Slate.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, health care reform, InTrade, ObamaCare, Politics, prediction markets, US government, US politics | 8 Comments

Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.

Posted on March 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver: I’m not sure if you should particularly care about the little 5 or 10 point hedges (usually to the pessimistic side) that I’ve periodically been recommending around the Intrade contract on the chances of reform passing. Even if … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, health care reform, InTrade, ObamaCare, Politics, prediction markets, US government, US politics | 3 Comments

SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

Posted on March 9, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, forecasting, forecasting models, models, Nate Silver, political forecasting, Politics, Psychology, statistical models, statistics, SXSW 2009, US politics, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

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