Tag Archives: arbitrage

Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post.

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, InTrade, market arbitrage, market arbitrage opportunities, prediction markets | Leave a comment

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The NYT writers discusses 2 (different?) issues. – #1. There was market arbitrage opportunies in the recent past between InTrade and BetFair —unlike 4 years ago, and contrary to the laws of economics. – The price of the Barack Obama … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, bookmakers, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Hedging, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, manipulations, market arbitrage, market manipulations, political hedging, political prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, risk hedging, US elections | 1 Comment

With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: About Justin Wolfers’s column Justin Wolfers’ Freakonomics post (which suggests that BetFair would have a better predictive power if US traders could use it).

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged arbitrage, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivaitive traders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market traders, prediction markets, predictive power, Robin Hanson, traders, US event derivative traders, US prediction market traders, US traders | Leave a comment

InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges

Posted on September 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers gives his views about the (now past) differences between the probabilistic predictions given by InTrade on the 2008 US presidential elections… and the ones generated by the other real-money and play-money prediction exchanges. One hypothesis: US political insiders … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged arbitrage, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction markets | 2 Comments

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Market Efficiency), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged arbitrage, BetFair, efficiency, Emile Servan-Schreiber, HubDub, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, market arbitrage, market efficiency, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 1 Comment

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 6 Comments

Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market

Posted on August 19, 2008 by Koleman Strumpf

There has been an unexploited arbitrage opportunity in the Intrade Democratic VP market (“2008 Democratic VP Nominee (others upon request)”). As the attachment shows, you can sell the slate of candidates for 123.2 (just sum the bids) while you will … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, trading data analysis, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, US Vice President, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs | 18 Comments

Divergence between InTrade and BetFair political prices??

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I have been inundated by e-mails asking me to comment on the Crooked Timber posting on arbitrage possibility between InTrade and BetFair on US presidential elections. My answer: I would rather see such a study on long series —as Justin … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged arbitrage, BetFair, Christmas, economist, Eric Zitzewitz, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Mike Giberson, prediction markets, United States, web stats | 3 Comments