Category Archives: Analysis (Data)
Data Analysis Of The Day — Sex Scandal Edition
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So much for Prof Panos and his data religion
People answer bullshit when polled by Prof Panos and other stats collectors.
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“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”
“If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.”
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Boom and Bust of Prediction Markets
The boom of public and private prediction markets started after the 2004 US elections. InTrade claimed to have nailed “all 50 states”. InTrade’s performance in the 2008 US elections was less stellar, and in line with polls. Hence, the bust we are in.
If true, the good performance of HubDub in the Oscars 2009 forecasting race [...]
Erik Snowberg on the prediction markets about the 2008 US presidential elections
Andy Eggers:
So to sum up, I liked the use of prediction markets to estimate the conditional general election probability for a candidate at a point in time, and I think it’s worth getting some estimates of how particular events moved this probability. I think at this stage the conclusions are a bit underdeveloped and oversold, [...]
A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price
Via Andrew Gelman
On November 3, 2008:
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Emile Servan-Schreiber is such a funny man.
Go to NewsFutures to see this widget.
NewsFutures data on the 2008 US presidential elections —XLS file.
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