Category Archives: Analysis (Data)

The Interdependence of Prices and Gold

Posted on June 26, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

I gave a talk on Thursday night at the New York Investing Club meeting. The basic points: Gold does well when real rates of return are low. Real rates describe the price of gold much better than inflation alone. This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Finance, Financial Markets, Money, The Global Economy | Tagged demographics, gold, Real Returns, volatility | Leave a comment

The election night on BetFair – [CHART]

Posted on May 7, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

UK’s General Election 2010:

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged conservatives, David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Great Britain, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, Politics, Tories, UK politics, UK's General Election 2010, United Kingdom | Leave a comment

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.

Posted on April 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods. Jason Ruspini: The piece is problematic insofar as it underweights proximity to areas where people work, which results in high ratings for distant neighborhoods and low ratings for central ones, on top of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), News | Tagged Nate Silver, New York, New York City, New York City's neighborhoods, New York Magazine | Leave a comment

The stock market is stochastic.

Posted on March 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Randomness is predictable.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged random, randomness, stochastic, stock markets, US stock market | Leave a comment

Hans Rosling: Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?

Posted on October 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Talking at the US State Department this summer, Hans Rosling uses his fascinating data-bubble software to burst myths about the developing world. Look for new analysis on China and the post-bailout world, mixed with classic data shows.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Science, The Global Economy | Tagged data, data analysis, dataset, Hans Rosling, mindset | Leave a comment

iPredict New Zealand = good predictor

Posted on October 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Via the NZ economist

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, iPredict, iPredict New Zealand, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?

Posted on October 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prof Michael Giberson: I think the â€œsmall, secretive committeeâ€ explanation is weak []. Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, BetFair, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets | 1 Comment

The truth about CrowdClarity’s extraordinary predictive power (which impresses Jed Christiansen so much)

Posted on September 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: At first blush, it appears that we finally have a bona fide prediction market success! If we’re going to celebrate, I’d suggest Prosecco, not Champagne, however. There are a number of reasons to be cautious. These represent only … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, corporate forecasting, corporate prediction markets, CrowdClarity, enterprise forecasting, enterprise prediction markets, General Motors, internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets | Leave a comment

Finally, a positive corporate prediction market case study… —well, according to Jed Christiansen

Posted on September 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen: To recap, the prediction market beat the official GM forecast (made at the beginning of the month) easily, which isnâ€™t hugely surprising considering the myopic nature of internal forecasting. But the prediction market also beat the Edmunds.com forecast. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, corporate forecasting, corporate prediction markets, CrowdClarity, enterprise forecasting, enterprise prediction markets, General Motors, internal prediction markets, prediction markets, private prediction markets | 12 Comments

Wanna know more about Panos Ipeirotis’s paper on prediction markets of prediction markets?

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

His co-author is here, telling his side of the story. #2. There is indeed a lack of high quality statistical research on prediction markets. I have seen published papers doing terrible things like regressing prices from one prediction market on … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Panos Ipeirotis, prediction markets, prediction markets of prediction markets | 7 Comments

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