4 thoughts on “Super Bowl XLIII – 2009

  1. Barry0 said:

    Is this a knockout comp? The graph looks too mathematical to be anything else.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    Barry, explain more your question.

    I took that chart from BetFairPredicts.com, because BetFair.com don’t allow us to take expired charts.

  3. Barry0 said:

    If the teams are knocked out of the competition (or mathematically have no chance) then thats going to improve the probability of the other remaining teams. I.e. 8 equal teams would have a 12.5%, 4 get knocked out and the remaining 4 would jump to 25%, 2 more and its 50/50%.

    The probability of the Steelers in the latter part of the graph jump from 20% to 40% to 70%(80%) nearly doubling. Important information in the graph, the ranges of 19-21% and 39-41% etc, is smoothed out and would be where “the masses” affect the price.

    The final 2 teams jump up in the last week, but if the graph was somewhat normalised to take out the knockout effect, it might be easier to see if the Cardinals improved their % (24 to 30) while Steelers (80 to 70) went down.

  4. Chris F. Masse said:

    Thanks for the elaboration, Barry. Let’s see whether someone comments on that.

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