Lets face it. The political world doesnt give the first fig about the prediction markets, InTrade, BetFair, Betdaq, NewsFutures, HubDub, Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, and the rest of our little clique.

Posted on March 30, 2008 by admin

Some of our luminaries have had their vapors and have boldly stated that the public [*] prediction markets would soon take over the free world and become the forecasting tool of choice for decision makers. Since our movement has started, in 2003, that has not happened &#8212-and will never happen (let alone in the year 2020). We were duped by those cocky misleaders. In the coming weeks, I&#8217-m going to try to launch a big intra-industry initiative to find the right usage for the public prediction markets. Stay tuned&#8230- and I hope I&#8217-ll get you on board with me.

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[*] as opposed to the enterprise prediction markets, which is not the topic of my bombastic rant above, which is a horse of another color, and which would deserve a completely different analysis.

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WEB EXCLUSIVE: Here&#8217-s what the political world really cares about&#8230-

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Gallup 1

Gallup 2

Gallup 3

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

The economic model that BetFair Australia operates under does not compensate the industry for putting on the show.

Posted on March 30, 2008 by admin

&#8230- said some kind of horse racing official from Down Under.

Via mister Betting Market.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Play-money prediction exchange HubDub is a phenomenal success.
BetFair Australia’s spin doctor tells all about their payments to the horse race industry.
Meet Jeffrey Ma (at right on the photo), the ProTrade co-founder, and whose gambling life is the basis of the upcoming movie, 21.
Independent production company seeks deep throats to spill beans on online poker industry and BetFair Poker.
BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

LinkedIn feed of your network updates

Posted on March 29, 2008 by admin

UPDATE: Following my protestation published in the post below, LinkedIn has just fixed the problem I described and its network update feeds do now output both a title and a body (a.k.a. description). The body contains information and links, as I asked in this post. 😀

So, kudos to the LinkedIn engineers for computing that, even lately. However, I remain adamant that the TechCrunch writer (Ducan Riley) is an incompetent bozo.

UPDATE #2: The feed that I’m receiving now beams only titles. So we’re back to square one. 🙁

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The information comes as a set of feed item titles… as opposed to full feed items (with each a body and a title). … In that body (a.k.a. “description” in RSS lingo), I would have liked to have each people or organization’s name… with their LinkedIn link embodied into their name… as you’ve got on the LinkedIn website (see the second image, at the bottom of this post).

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TAKEAWAY:

The LinkedIn engineers didn’t do their work correctly.
The TechCrunch writer rushed to publish his blog post and did not pause to experiment the damn thing —or if he did, that Australian bozo (blogging at night while his Silicon Valley boss sleeps) has nothing to do writing for a premier tech publication.
I would expect a tech blog to be more critical, and not to swallow any P.R. crap sent by corporations —even if that P.R. message is sent as a blog post. Just because a P.R. department is “cool” and uses a blog to communicate does not mean that the tech bloggers should swallow everything those “cool” spin doctors say.

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[The feed on the right side of the image below is the one that I’m talking about —not the one on the left site.]

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Here are the updates from the Midas Oracle networks (the screen shot was taken 2 weeks ago). On the LinkedIn website, the names of people and organizations are clickable. That makes all the difference between an information that is useful and one that is not.

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To be part of the Midas Oracle Network, follow this LinkedIn link and send me an invite from there. [ cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-| ] I’ll accept it.

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Here’s the FaceBook link. Send me an invite from there, if you wish. [ chrisfmasse +++at— gmail +dot— com ]

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And if you wish, we may also become friends on Google, and share feed items within Google Reader. I found this to be usable and useful. Try it. (It’s Robert Scoble who showed me the way. I’m sharing feed items with him and two dozens of people.)

To share items with me (Chris Masse) within Google Reader, go to GMail, and under “Chat” (on the left pane), click on “Add Contact”. Paste my e-mail address there (chrisfmasse +++at— gmail +dot— com). Once I receive your invite, I’ll accept it. You will then see my shared items and I’ll see yours within Google Reader.

73% of journalists [*] sometimes or always use blogs in their research.

Posted on March 28, 2008 by admin

[*] = newspaper, magazine, TV, radio, and web journalists

Editors &amp- Publishers

Via Henry Blodget (who is hilarious, as always)

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Implications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeFair, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, HSX, NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, etc.):

The P.R. arm of the prediction market firms should also reach the bloggers &#8212-not just the journalists.
Prediction market firms should monitor the Blogosphere for rumors, and deal with them in a subtitle way.
A long (&#8220-too long&#8221-, some will say), balanced, detailed blog post about your product is more useful to reach out than a media kit.
Our industry needs a blog network of reference, all focused on prediction markets.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Could a statistical reputation system built on top of Amazons Mechanical Turk be of any help to the prediction market firms?

Posted on March 28, 2008 by admin

Obama-Cinton 1

Obama-Cinton 2

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I leave the mic to David Pennock so that he&#8217-ll explain to you what this is all about. (Be sure to check Panos Ipeirotis&#8216- comment on Lukas Biewald&#8216- blog post.) [UPDATE: Panos has just made it into Read &amp- Write Web!!!!!!]

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New York Times

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I am more interested in what &#8220-Dolores Labs&#8221- does for a living. Here&#8217-s what Lukas Biewald has e-mailed me:

We collect large data sets for fun and profit using Mechanical Turk and a statistical reputation system that we&#8217-ve build on top of it. We&#8217-ve helped companies with tasks ranging from deciding if an analysts opinion about a stock is positive or negative to finding the best price for buying a hot tub online. (You can see other examples at http://doloreslabs.com/examples.html).
Recently we decided to take our small PR budget and instead of buying Google Ads, give our smart friends interesting data sets to play with in exchange for posting on our blog. So far, we&#8217-ve looked at race on Sports Illustrated covers over time (http://blog.doloreslabs.com/?p=10), compared Hillary vs Obama coverage in the media (http://blog.doloreslabs.com/?p=21) and collected subjective data on colors (http://blog.doloreslabs.com/?p=11). The beauty of these experiments is we can do them in just a day or two and they only cost us a few hundred dollars, so we can do lots of them.
We have lots of ideas of more stuff we want to do with our technology &#8212- if you have any thoughts I&#8217-d love to hear them.

Fascinating.

Any applications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair, etc.)??

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
Science
Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
“Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?

Posted on March 27, 2008 by admin

Via Nigel Eccles and Mat Fogarty, the Predictify blog, Mashable, and VentureBeat.

NewsFutures, Consensus Point and Inkling Markets were self-funded, are now profitable, and are continuing to address their customers&#8217- problems with a continually improved technology. These 3 prediction market software vendors are proving that you can create a sustainable business without the need to get &#8220-funded&#8221- by angel investors or VCs. With the money from those guys also comes the pressure to &#8220-monetize&#8221- every thing. It&#8217-s not always a good thing to have the suits running the show. NewsFutures, Consensus Point and Inkling Markets are still in the hands of their founders, and they are still free to execute their vision &#8212-the way they want.

What&#8217-s your view, folks?

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

YIPPEEEEEEEE!!!!… Praying mantis celebrating the arrival of transparency in the sub-field of enterprise prediction markets.

Posted on March 27, 2008 by admin

GOOOOOOOOOOOOAL!&#8230-

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Parying Mantis

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets is out of the woods on business strategy&#8230- and David Perry of Consensus Point, ignited by our Google-paper post, has vowed to tell all&#8230- (I still can believe it, but it sounds true, he really said it.)&#8230- while David &#8220-Sweetie&#8221- Pennock is applauding&#8230-

Where on Earth are NewsFutures and Xpree?? Are they napping?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Robin Hanson wants to rule the world -just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

Posted on March 27, 2008 by admin

Our Master Of All Universes moans that the Free World&#8217-s private and public decision makers rarely or never ask him for advice &#8212-even though he sits on many &#8220-Boards Of Advisors&#8221- (like NewsFutures&#8216- one), which are, by definition, set up to provide advice &#8212-or so he thought, at inception. How come CEOs and heads of states are not imploring him for advice to help them run the word, he asks. He blogs that advisers are probably paid primarily for the prestige value that they lend to the company.

Which leads me to realize that I pay zero French franc for having economist Michael Giberson on our Scientific Advisory Board, which is quite about what his prestige is worth in the field of prediction markets, as of today. That might change in the future, though &#8212-especially if I continue to flatter him publicly in posts like this present one. He might suffer from ego inflation and charge me for using his so-called &#8220-prestige value&#8221-. All economists, be damned. They are as greedy as the people they study.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.

Posted on March 27, 2008 by admin

Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):

Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. […] .. [“stress test” = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn&#8217-t predict future shortfall. […]
Bayesian is necessary but not sufficient. […]
If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you. Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones. […]
Go to parties! If you&#8217-re a scientist, you will chance upon a remark that might spark new research. […]

Also, see Stan Jonas&#8217- 2 takes on FOMC.

Midas Oracle.ORG – Predictions & Innovation

Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth

Yearly Archives: 2008

Lets face it. The political world doesnt give the first fig about the prediction markets, InTrade, BetFair, Betdaq, NewsFutures, HubDub, Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, and the rest of our little clique.

The economic model that BetFair Australia operates under does not compensate the industry for putting on the show.

LinkedIn feed of your network updates

73% of journalists [*] sometimes or always use blogs in their research.

Could a statistical reputation system built on top of Amazons Mechanical Turk be of any help to the prediction market firms?

Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?

YIPPEEEEEEEE!!!!… Praying mantis celebrating the arrival of transparency in the sub-field of enterprise prediction markets.

Robin Hanson wants to rule the world -just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.